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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12.7x - 14.0x | 13.4x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.6x - 11.7x | 11.2x |
Fair Value | €34.75 - €38.40 | €36.58 |
Upside | 10.1% - 21.7% | 15.9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Innospec Inc. | OCT | DB:OCT |
Quaker Chemical Corporation | QUC | DB:QUC |
Nabaltec AG | NTG | XTRA:NTG |
Evonik Industries AG | EVK | XTRA:EVK |
AlzChem Group AG | ACT | XTRA:ACT |
Fuchs SE | FPE | DB:FPE |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
OCT | QUC | NTG | EVK | ACT | FPE | ||
DB:OCT | DB:QUC | XTRA:NTG | XTRA:EVK | XTRA:ACT | DB:FPE | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -26.9% | 11.0% | 3.6% | -6.9% | 21.6% | 6.0% | |
3Y CAGR | -37.8% | 3.8% | -2.4% | -13.2% | 26.7% | 7.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -92.0% | -19.7% | 7.1% | -6.2% | 23.6% | -1.4% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 12.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 8.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 9.9% | 11.7% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 1.8% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 13.3% | 12.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 0.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 14.5% | 11.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.01x | 1.57x | 0.52x | 0.79x | 2.65x | 1.32x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 31.0x | 10.8x | 3.3x | 7.0x | 14.2x | 9.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 121.6x | 16.0x | 5.1x | 14.4x | 18.2x | 11.1x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.1x | 16.0x | 121.6x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 11.0x | 12.2x | 20.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.7x | 13.4x | 14.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 426 | 426 | 426 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,413 | 5,698 | 5,983 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 5,422 | 5,707 | 5,992 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 151.6 | 151.6 | 151.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 35.77 | 37.65 | 39.53 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 35.77 | 37.65 | 39.53 | 31.55 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 13.4% | 19.3% | 25.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | OCT | QUC | NTG | EVK | ACT | FPE | |
Enterprise Value | 1,818 | 2,864 | 107 | 11,679 | 1,500 | 4,773 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 267 | 202 | 94 | 379 | 64 | 134 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 105 | 15 | 500 | 0 | 71 | |
(-) Debt | (49) | (975) | (91) | (4,529) | (48) | (193) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (6) | (3) | 0 | (65) | (2) | (3) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,029 | 2,193 | 125 | 7,964 | 1,514 | 4,782 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 24.8 | 17.4 | 8.8 | 466.0 | 10.2 | 151.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 81.71 | 126.07 | 14.15 | 17.09 | 149.20 | 31.55 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 70.00 | 108.00 | 14.15 | 17.09 | 149.20 | 31.55 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |