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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.6x - 1.8x | 1.7x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.8x - 2.0x | 1.9x |
| Fair Value | €11.08 - €12.17 | €11.63 |
| Upside | -18.0% - -9.9% | -14.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Endesa, S.A. | ELE | BME:ELE |
| EVN AG | EVN | DB:EVN |
| AB Ignitis grupe | IGN1L | NSEL:IGN1L |
| PG&E Corporation | PCG | BRSE:PCG |
| E.ON SE | EOAN | DB:EOAN |
| Fortum Oyj | FOT | DB:FOT |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| ELE | EVN | IGN1L | PCG | EOAN | FOT | |||
| BME:ELE | DB:EVN | NSEL:IGN1L | BRSE:PCG | DB:EOAN | DB:FOT | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 1.7% | 8.1% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 14.6% | 1.3% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 0.7% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 1.5% | -3.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -16.5% | -4.5% | -9.5% | 0.0% | -14.0% | -13.6% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 11.2% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 4.2% | 15.3% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.6% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 1.0% | 23.0% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.8% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 21.0% | 10.8% | 19.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.8% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 21.0% | 10.8% | 19.3% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.79x | 0.27x | 1.31x | 3.97x | 0.84x | 1.98x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.9x | 2.4x | 8.6x | 18.9x | 7.7x | 10.2x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.28x | 1.20x | 0.63x | 1.55x | 0.49x | 2.09x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.27x | 1.31x | 3.97x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.84x | 1.66x | 2.76x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.63x | 1.72x | 1.81x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 5,800 | 5,800 | 5,800 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 9,473 | 9,972 | 10,470 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 675 | 675 | 675 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 10,148 | 10,647 | 11,145 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 897.3 | 897.3 | 897.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 11.31 | 11.87 | 12.42 | |||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.31 | 11.87 | 12.42 | 13.52 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -16.3% | -12.2% | -8.1% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ELE | EVN | IGN1L | PCG | EOAN | FOT | |
| Enterprise Value | 37,165 | 215 | 3,031 | 114,665 | 68,217 | 11,452 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 840 | 101 | 235 | 940 | 7,025 | 4,166 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 334 | 5,109 | 35 | 0 | 9,996 | 1,504 | |
| (-) Debt | (10,530) | (1,211) | (1,847) | (58,343) | (39,064) | (4,916) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (943) | (327) | 0 | (252) | (6,325) | (79) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,579) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 26,866 | 3,886 | 1,454 | 55,431 | 39,849 | 12,127 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,058.6 | 178.3 | 72.3 | 2,441.9 | 2,613.1 | 897.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 25.38 | 21.80 | 20.10 | 22.70 | 15.25 | 13.52 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 25.38 | 21.80 | 20.10 | 18.54 | 15.25 | 13.52 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | CHF | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |