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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.1x - 9.0x | 8.6x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 8.3x - 9.2x | 8.7x |
Fair Value | €13.60 - €14.94 | €14.27 |
Upside | -18.4% - -10.3% | -14.4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
EVN AG | EVN | DB:EVN |
Endesa, S.A. | ELE | BME:ELE |
AB Ignitis grupe | IGN1L | NSEL:IGN1L |
PG&E Corporation | PCG | BRSE:PCG |
Energa SA | ENG | WSE:ENG |
Fortum Oyj | FOT | DB:FOT |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
EVN | ELE | IGN1L | PCG | ENG | FOT | ||
DB:EVN | BME:ELE | NSEL:IGN1L | BRSE:PCG | WSE:ENG | DB:FOT | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 8.6% | 6.6% | 24.1% | 14.4% | 10.7% | -3.0% | |
3Y CAGR | 11.3% | 7.7% | 17.2% | 12.4% | 7.9% | -9.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -9.2% | 79.8% | -0.5% | 20.9% | 97.9% | -19.0% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 21.1% | 17.6% | 19.7% | 32.9% | 14.2% | 19.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 23.4% | 12.7% | 19.8% | 29.4% | 12.4% | 28.4% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 22.1% | 21.9% | 22.8% | 38.1% | 13.8% | 25.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 20.3% | 23.1% | 20.5% | 38.2% | 13.9% | 26.0% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.45x | 1.80x | 1.26x | 3.70x | 0.78x | 2.63x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.2x | 7.8x | 6.1x | 9.7x | 5.6x | 10.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 4.4x | 12.1x | 9.6x | 17.8x | 9.4x | 13.6x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.2x | 6.1x | 9.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.4x | 10.8x | 14.3x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.1x | 8.6x | 9.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 1,413 | 1,413 | 1,413 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 11,486 | 12,091 | 12,695 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 798 | 798 | 798 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 12,284 | 12,889 | 13,493 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 897.3 | 897.3 | 897.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 13.69 | 14.36 | 15.04 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 13.69 | 14.36 | 15.04 | 16.66 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -17.8% | -13.8% | -9.7% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | EVN | ELE | IGN1L | PCG | ENG | FOT | |
Enterprise Value | 904 | 38,033 | 3,053 | 110,942 | 16,549 | 14,150 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 199 | 92 | 283 | 2,023 | 1,763 | 4,332 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 4,838 | 291 | 36 | 0 | 97 | 1,509 | |
(-) Debt | (1,313) | (10,469) | (1,876) | (59,968) | (12,284) | (4,963) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (340) | (918) | 0 | (252) | (883) | (80) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,579) | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 4,288 | 27,029 | 1,495 | 51,166 | 5,242 | 14,948 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 178.3 | 1,058.3 | 72.4 | 2,197.7 | 414.1 | 897.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 24.05 | 25.54 | 20.65 | 23.28 | 12.66 | 16.66 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.26 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 24.05 | 25.54 | 20.65 | 18.52 | 12.66 | 16.66 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | CHF | PLN | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.26 | 1.00 | 1.00 |