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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 13.4x - 14.8x | 14.1x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 13.1x - 14.5x | 13.8x |
Fair Value | €215.52 - €250.31 | €232.92 |
Upside | 2.9% - 19.6% | 11.3% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
United Parcel Service, Inc. | UPS | NYSE:UPS |
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | EXPD | NYSE:EXPD |
Hub Group, Inc. | HUBG | NasdaqGS:HUBG |
Forward Air Corporation | FWRD | NasdaqGS:FWRD |
Landstar System, Inc. | LSTR | NasdaqGS:LSTR |
FedEx Corporation | FDX | DB:FDX |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
UPS | EXPD | HUBG | FWRD | LSTR | FDX | ||
NYSE:UPS | NYSE:EXPD | NasdaqGS:HUBG | NasdaqGS:FWRD | NasdaqGS:LSTR | DB:FDX | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 0.4% | 6.3% | -2.0% | -16.0% | -3.7% | 19.8% | |
3Y CAGR | -14.6% | -18.3% | -13.5% | -31.7% | -21.1% | 5.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -7.3% | 24.3% | -16.1% | -26.7% | -24.4% | -3.1% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 11.3% | 10.5% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 10.4% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 8.8% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 5.1% | 7.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 8.8% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 7.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.09x | 1.35x | 0.68x | 1.20x | 0.93x | 1.00x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.5x | 13.0x | 7.9x | 14.2x | 15.9x | 8.0x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 12.4x | 13.7x | 18.3x | 44.0x | 19.8x | 13.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 12.4x | 18.3x | 44.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 10.8x | 13.5x | 23.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 13.4x | 14.1x | 14.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 6,745 | 6,745 | 6,745 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 90,615 | 95,384 | 100,154 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (31,338) | (31,338) | (31,338) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 59,277 | 64,046 | 68,816 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 235.9 | 235.9 | 235.9 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 251.28 | 271.50 | 291.72 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 217.53 | 235.04 | 252.54 | 209.35 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 3.9% | 12.3% | 20.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | UPS | EXPD | HUBG | FWRD | LSTR | FDX | |
Enterprise Value | 97,151 | 14,947 | 2,614 | 3,053 | 4,437 | 88,385 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,065 | 1,319 | 113 | 116 | 473 | 5,572 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 325 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 506 | |
(-) Debt | (25,594) | (588) | (485) | (2,153) | (154) | (37,416) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (24) | (2) | (48) | (72) | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 76,923 | 15,675 | 2,193 | 944 | 4,820 | 57,047 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 846.8 | 136.9 | 61.2 | 30.4 | 34.9 | 235.9 | |
Implied Stock Price | 90.84 | 114.46 | 35.81 | 31.03 | 137.92 | 241.83 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 90.84 | 114.46 | 35.81 | 31.03 | 137.92 | 209.35 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 |