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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 15.4x - 17.0x | 16.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 14.9x - 16.5x | 15.7x |
| Fair Value | €20.91 - €23.06 | €21.98 |
| Upside | -20.3% - -12.1% | -16.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Roche Holding AG | RHHV.F | OTCPK:RHHV.F |
| Merck KGaA | MKGA.F | OTCPK:MKGA.F |
| Bayer Aktiengesellschaft | BAYZ.F | OTCPK:BAYZ.F |
| Novartis AG | NVSE.F | OTCPK:NVSE.F |
| H. Lundbeck A/S | HLUN A | CPSE:HLUNA |
| Eisai Co., Ltd. | EII | DB:EII |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| RHHV.F | MKGA.F | BAYZ.F | NVSE.F | HLUN A | EII | ||
| OTCPK:RHHV.F | OTCPK:MKGA.F | OTCPK:BAYZ.F | OTCPK:NVSE.F | CPSE:HLUNA | DB:EII | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.4% | 9.9% | -4.8% | 12.4% | 3.7% | -17.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -1.1% | -1.7% | -10.0% | 14.2% | 25.1% | 3.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.7% | 24.6% | -56.6% | 26.0% | 42.0% | 94.2% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 31.1% | 19.9% | 14.6% | 26.7% | 17.0% | 7.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 29.4% | 17.6% | 14.7% | 27.1% | 18.0% | 5.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 31.4% | 19.3% | 6.8% | 31.6% | 19.9% | 6.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 31.9% | 20.1% | 6.0% | 34.8% | 22.8% | 7.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.40x | 2.78x | 1.24x | 5.15x | 2.31x | 1.63x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.9x | 9.9x | 11.3x | 12.1x | 7.7x | 12.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.8x | 13.9x | 20.7x | 14.8x | 10.1x | 21.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 10.1x | 13.9x | 20.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -112.4x | 19.1x | 27.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 15.4x | 16.2x | 17.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 61,631 | 61,631 | 61,631 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 949,478 | 999,451 | 1,049,423 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 21,435 | 21,435 | 21,435 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 970,913 | 1,020,886 | 1,070,858 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 281.9 | 281.9 | 281.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3,444.33 | 3,621.61 | 3,798.88 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 176.9 | 176.9 | 176.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 19.47 | 20.47 | 21.47 | 26.24 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -25.8% | -22.0% | -18.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | RHHV.F | MKGA.F | BAYZ.F | NVSE.F | HLUN A | EII | |
| Enterprise Value | 275,010 | 57,735 | 58,181 | 276,235 | 51,905 | 1,287,378 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 12,026 | 1,573 | 5,495 | 6,732 | 2,647 | 285,380 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1,034 | 2,885 | 1,400 | 48 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (34,633) | (9,402) | (38,427) | (32,637) | (13,648) | (238,920) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (4,366) | (70) | (130) | (69) | 0 | (25,025) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 248,037 | 50,870 | 28,004 | 251,661 | 40,952 | 1,308,813 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 850.3 | 434.8 | 982.4 | 1,935.9 | 1,153.6 | 281.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 291.70 | 117.00 | 28.51 | 130.00 | 35.50 | 4,643.03 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.81 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 176.94 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 361.60 | 135.25 | 32.95 | 130.00 | 35.50 | 26.24 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | DKK | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.81 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 176.94 | |