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Deutsche Post AG
DB:DHL
德國 / 工業 / 空運和物流
貨幣
€
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股息
財報
模型
財務狀況
比較
穩健度
圖表
10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價
股價
37.43
EUR
公允價值
56.39
EUR
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
14.0% - 13.0%
13.5%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple
7.1x - 9.1x
8.1x
Fair Value
€50.39 - €62.82
€56.39
Upside
27.9% - 59.5%
43.2%
3.0%
Revenue 10y CAGR
13.7%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
12.2%
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit
分享
儲存
股價
37.43
EUR
公允價值
56.39
EUR
看漲
43.2%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(EUR in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
Revenue
84,772
86,802
90,084
92,584
99,962
103,574
105,645
107,758
109,914
112,112
114,354
% Growth
3.0%
2.4%
3.8%
2.8%
8.0%
3.6%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBITDA
7,571
11,116
11,757
12,385
13,361
14,535
14,826
15,122
15,425
15,733
16,048
% of Revenue
8.9%
12.8%
13.1%
13.4%
13.4%
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(EUR in millions)
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
EBITDA
11,116
11,757
12,385
13,361
14,535
14,826
15,122
15,425
15,733
16,048
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(4,847)
(4,972)
(5,222)
(5,875)
(6,308)
(6,434)
(6,562)
(6,694)
(6,827)
(6,964)
EBIT
6,268
6,785
7,163
7,486
8,228
8,392
8,560
8,731
8,906
9,084
Pro forma Taxes
(1,692)
(1,832)
(1,934)
(2,021)
(2,221)
(2,266)
(2,311)
(2,357)
(2,405)
(2,453)
NOPAT
3,885
4,576
4,953
5,229
5,465
6,006
6,126
6,249
6,374
6,501
6,631
Capital Expenditures
(2,936)
(3,000)
(3,230)
(3,501)
(3,609)
(3,457)
(3,522)
(3,529)
(3,503)
(3,518)
(3,517)
NWC Investment
(9)
(8)
(12)
(10)
(28)
(14)
(8)
(8)
(8)
(8)
(9)
(+) D&A
2,249
4,847
4,972
5,222
5,875
6,308
6,434
6,562
6,694
6,827
6,964
Free Cash Flow
3,189
6,415
6,683
6,940
7,703
8,843
9,030
9,274
9,556
9,802
10,070
% Growth
101%
4%
4%
11%
15%
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
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