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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.0% - 7.0% | 7.5% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 3.5% - 4.5% | 4.0% |
| Fair Value | €34.64 - €54.04 | €41.60 |
| Upside | -32.9% - 4.6% | -19.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 1,170,611 | 1,211,000 | 1,221,950 | 1,301,800 | 1,393,300 | 1,476,000 | 1,452,650 | 1,453,350 | 1,428,850 | 1,392,568 | 1,392,568 | |
| % Growth | 5.3% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | -1.6% | 0.0% | -1.7% | -2.5% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 573,668 | 605,000 | 600,502 | 628,000 | 648,000 | 670,500 | 701,000 | 730,500 | 724,000 | 744,000 | 744,000 | |
| % of Revenue | 49.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | 48.2% | 46.5% | 45.4% | 48.3% | 50.3% | 50.7% | 53.4% | 53.4% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 605,000 | 600,502 | 628,000 | 648,000 | 670,500 | 701,000 | 730,500 | 724,000 | 744,000 | 744,000 | 744,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 28,934 | 56,100 | 92,292 | 103,412 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (23,721) | (23,935) | (25,500) | (27,292) | (28,912) | (28,454) | (28,468) | (27,988) | (27,278) | (27,278) | (65,222) | |
| EBIT | 581,279 | 605,500 | 658,600 | 713,000 | 745,000 | 672,546 | 702,032 | 696,012 | 716,722 | 716,722 | 678,778 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (162,758) | (169,540) | (184,408) | (199,640) | (208,600) | (188,313) | (196,569) | (194,883) | (200,682) | (200,682) | (190,058) | |
| NOPAT | 390,242 | 418,521 | 435,960 | 474,192 | 513,360 | 536,400 | 484,233 | 505,463 | 501,128 | 516,040 | 516,040 | 488,720 |
| Capital Expenditures | (50,415) | (75,000) | (67,000) | (62,050) | (74,100) | (78,700) | (71,617) | (71,651) | (70,443) | (68,655) | (68,655) | (68,655) |
| NWC Investment | (18,710) | (12,755) | (3,458) | (25,217) | (28,896) | (26,117) | 7,374 | (221) | 7,737 | 11,458 | 0 | (17,591) |
| (+) D&A | 31,665 | 23,721 | 23,935 | 25,500 | 27,292 | 28,912 | 28,454 | 28,468 | 27,988 | 27,278 | 27,278 | 65,222 |
| Free Cash Flow | 352,782 | 354,487 | 389,437 | 412,424 | 437,655 | 460,494 | 448,445 | 462,059 | 466,411 | 486,121 | 474,663 | 467,696 |
| % Growth | 0% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 5% | -3% | 3% | 1% | 4% | -2% | -1% | |