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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3.3x - 3.7x | 3.5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2.9x - 3.2x | 3.0x |
Fair Value | €0.93 - €1.01 | €0.97 |
Upside | 12.4% - 22.1% | 17.3% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Foran Energy Group Co., Ltd. | 2911 | SZSE:002911 |
Binhai Investment Company Limited | 2886 | SEHK:2886 |
China Gas Holdings Limited | 384 | SEHK:384 |
Nanjing Public Utilities Development Co., Ltd. | 421 | SZSE:000421 |
Shaanxi Provincial Natural Gas Co.,Ltd | 2267 | SZSE:002267 |
Kunlun Energy Company Limited | CTJ1 | DB:CTJ1 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
2911 | 2886 | 384 | 421 | 2267 | CTJ1 | ||
SZSE:002911 | SEHK:2886 | SEHK:384 | SZSE:000421 | SZSE:002267 | DB:CTJ1 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 11.9% | 8.1% | -5.8% | 3.6% | 0.1% | 5.2% | |
3Y CAGR | 8.6% | -5.8% | -17.8% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -6.1% | -17.9% | 14.5% | 116.8% | 46.6% | -0.1% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 8.3% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 9.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 6.2% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 15.5% | 9.4% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 4.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 8.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 4.6% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 8.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.43x | 0.70x | 0.91x | 0.80x | 1.36x | 0.26x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.3x | 7.1x | 8.7x | 9.9x | 8.0x | 2.9x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 13.5x | 10.6x | 12.8x | 18.8x | 12.3x | 4.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 8.7x | 9.9x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.5x | 2.6x | 2.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 3.5x | 3.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 16,607 | 16,607 | 16,607 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 55,354 | 58,268 | 61,181 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 12,115 | 12,115 | 12,115 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 67,469 | 70,383 | 73,296 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 8,658.8 | 8,658.8 | 8,658.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 7.79 | 8.13 | 8.46 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/EUR | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.95 | 0.99 | 1.03 | 0.83 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 14.2% | 19.1% | 24.1% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 2911 | 2886 | 384 | 421 | 2267 | CTJ1 | |
Enterprise Value | 13,745 | 4,329 | 73,416 | 6,488 | 11,627 | 46,968 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,346 | 387 | 9,232 | 1,604 | 890 | 45,092 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1,598 | 322 | 22,758 | 842 | 565 | 14,988 | |
(-) Debt | (4,357) | (3,342) | (60,771) | (4,350) | (3,306) | (24,279) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (1,019) | (82) | (7,042) | (1,156) | (301) | (23,686) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | (144) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 13,312 | 1,470 | 37,592 | 3,428 | 9,475 | 59,083 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,297.5 | 1,374.1 | 5,448.2 | 576.1 | 1,112.1 | 8,658.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 10.26 | 1.07 | 6.90 | 5.95 | 8.52 | 6.82 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 8.22 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 10.26 | 1.07 | 6.90 | 5.95 | 8.52 | 0.83 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | HKD | HKD | CNY | CNY | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 8.22 |
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