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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.0x - 1.1x | 1.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.9x - 1.0x | 0.9x |
| Fair Value | €304.17 - €342.56 | €323.37 |
| Upside | -29.3% - -20.3% | -24.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Costco Wholesale Corporation | COST | NasdaqGS:COST |
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. | ANCT.F | OTCPK:ANCT.F |
| Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. | SVND.F | OTCPK:SVND.F |
| Village Super Market, Inc. | VLGE.A | NasdaqGS:VLGE.A |
| Ingles Markets, Incorporated | IMKT.A | NasdaqGS:IMKT.A |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc. | CS2 | DB:CS2 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| COST | ANCT.F | SVND.F | VLGE.A | IMKT.A | CS2 | |||
| NasdaqGS:COST | OTCPK:ANCT.F | OTCPK:SVND.F | NasdaqGS:VLGE.A | NasdaqGS:IMKT.A | DB:CS2 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 10.8% | 6.1% | 12.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 11.7% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 9.1% | 5.1% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 7.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.9% | 5.2% | -10.3% | 3.9% | -8.0% | 7.3% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 5.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.58x | 0.82x | 0.71x | 0.30x | 0.27x | 1.35x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 42.1x | 15.8x | 17.4x | 9.5x | 12.9x | 26.9x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.60x | 0.66x | 0.48x | 0.23x | 0.23x | 1.18x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.27x | 0.71x | 1.58x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.64x | 0.91x | 1.35x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.98x | 1.04x | 1.09x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 15,941 | 15,941 | 15,941 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 15,696 | 16,523 | 17,349 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,631) | (2,631) | (2,631) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 13,065 | 13,891 | 14,717 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 37.2 | 37.2 | 37.2 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 351.39 | 373.61 | 395.83 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 300.30 | 319.29 | 338.28 | 430.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -30.2% | -25.7% | -21.3% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | COST | ANCT.F | SVND.F | VLGE.A | IMKT.A | CS2 | |
| Enterprise Value | 424,585 | 59,706 | 7,418,469 | 693 | 1,423 | 21,339 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 14,850 | 2,300 | 1,465,541 | 115 | 336 | 327 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 260 | 331,553 | 59 | 8 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (8,358) | (14,091) | (4,031,040) | (348) | (548) | (2,958) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (147) | (183,658) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 431,077 | 48,029 | 5,000,865 | 520 | 1,219 | 18,708 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 443.5 | 948.1 | 2,488.6 | 14.8 | 19.0 | 37.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 972.04 | 50.66 | 2,009.55 | 35.24 | 64.17 | 503.16 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 147.24 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 972.04 | 50.66 | 13.65 | 35.24 | 64.17 | 430.00 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 147.24 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |