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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 17.4x - 19.3x | 18.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 16.1x - 17.8x | 17.0x |
| Fair Value | €323.92 - €364.85 | €344.38 |
| Upside | -34.4% - -26.1% | -30.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | ALSN | NYSE:ALSN |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | WAB | NYSE:WAB |
| AGCO Corporation | AGCO | NYSE:AGCO |
| Crane Company | CR | NYSE:CR |
| Cummins Inc. | CMI | NYSE:CMI |
| Caterpillar Inc. | CAT1 | DB:CAT1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ALSN | WAB | AGCO | CR | CMI | CAT1 | ||
| NYSE:ALSN | NYSE:WAB | NYSE:AGCO | NYSE:CR | NYSE:CMI | DB:CAT1 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.3% | 17.7% | 12.0% | -5.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 14.4% | 23.6% | -3.2% | 19.6% | 19.9% | 17.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.9% | 15.3% | -40.9% | 13.4% | 21.4% | -14.0% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 29.5% | 13.7% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 17.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 30.5% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 10.1% | 20.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 31.5% | 16.0% | 7.9% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 20.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 32.2% | 17.5% | 6.5% | 16.9% | 12.3% | 18.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.68x | 3.75x | 0.98x | 4.69x | 1.94x | 4.66x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.4x | 17.4x | 10.0x | 24.4x | 12.5x | 21.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.3x | 21.5x | 15.1x | 27.7x | 15.8x | 25.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.3x | 15.8x | 27.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 13.1x | 17.1x | 25.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 17.4x | 18.4x | 19.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 11,816 | 11,816 | 11,816 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 206,104 | 216,952 | 227,800 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (34,902) | (34,902) | (34,902) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 171,202 | 182,050 | 192,898 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 468.0 | 468.0 | 468.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 365.83 | 389.01 | 412.19 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 318.42 | 338.60 | 358.77 | 494.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -35.5% | -31.5% | -27.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ALSN | WAB | AGCO | CR | CMI | CAT1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,205 | 40,441 | 9,809 | 10,630 | 65,267 | 300,506 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 902 | 500 | 884 | 388 | 3,074 | 6,633 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 30 | 0 | 597 | 0 | 2,018 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,415) | (5,673) | (3,021) | (14) | (8,762) | (41,534) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (47) | (301) | (2) | (1,084) | (1) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 6,722 | 35,221 | 7,968 | 11,002 | 60,513 | 265,604 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 83.2 | 171.0 | 74.6 | 57.6 | 137.8 | 468.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 80.76 | 206.02 | 106.77 | 191.02 | 439.18 | 567.56 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.15 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 80.76 | 206.02 | 106.77 | 191.02 | 439.18 | 494.00 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.15 | |