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600179 2.8%AMKB.F -2.6%601083 2.5%

觀察名單觀點 ProPicks AI 篩選器數據瀏覽圖表已儲存工作 WarrenAI

中遠海控

DB:C6G

中國 / 工業 / 海運

5 年 DCF 增長退出價

股價

1.23 EUR

公允價值

1.89 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	10.5% - 9.5%	10.0%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	3.0% - 4.0%	3.5%
Fair Value	€1.75 - €2.07	€1.89
Upside	38.6% - 64.3%	49.4%

-3.3%

Revenue 5y CAGR

17.0%

5y Avg EBITDA Margin

-30.8%

Unlevered FCF 5y CAGR

5-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股價

1.23 EUR

公允價值

1.89 EUR

看漲

49.4%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29

Revenue	233,859	216,641	199,306	198,171	198,171	198,171
% Growth	33.3%	-7.4%	-8.0%	-0.6%	0.0%	0.0%

EBITDA	66,166	39,948	34,988	32,304	32,304	32,304
% of Revenue	28.3%	18.4%	17.6%	16.3%	16.3%	16.3%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Terminal

EBITDA		39,948	34,988	32,304	32,304	32,304	32,304
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(6,775)	(6,224)	(3,412)	(3,412)	(3,412)	(18,030)

EBIT		33,172	28,764	28,892	28,892	28,892	14,275
Pro forma Taxes		(4,976)	(4,315)	(4,334)	(4,334)	(4,334)	(2,141)
NOPAT	49,509	28,197	24,449	24,558	24,558	24,558	12,134

Capital Expenditures	(25,999)	(19,000)	(17,786)	(18,979)	(18,979)	(18,979)	(18,979)
NWC Investment	25,355	(7,475)	(7,525)	(493)	0	0	3,011
(+) D&A	7,921	6,775	6,224	3,412	3,412	3,412	18,030

Free Cash Flow	56,786	8,497	5,362	8,499	8,992	8,992	14,196
% Growth		-85%	-37%	59%	6%	0%	58%

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