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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.1x - 9.0x | 8.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.3x - 7.0x | 6.6x |
| Fair Value | €36.38 - €42.36 | €39.37 |
| Upside | -15.4% - -1.5% | -8.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Evonik Industries AG | EVK | XTRA:EVK |
| LANXESS Aktiengesellschaft | LXS | XTRA:LXS |
| Arkema S.A. | V1S | DB:V1S |
| Syensqo SA/NV | 2NF | DUSE:2NF |
| Akzo Nobel N.V. | AKU | XTRA:AKU |
| BASF SE | BAS | DB:BAS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| EVK | LXS | V1S | 2NF | AKU | BAS | ||
| XTRA:EVK | XTRA:LXS | DB:V1S | DUSE:2NF | XTRA:AKU | DB:BAS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -3.1% | -11.2% | 0.0% | NM- | 1.7% | -3.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -7.7% | -11.0% | -5.9% | 1.6% | -3.4% | -16.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -16.9% | 30.7% | -15.3% | -13.9% | -17.6% | 11.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.9% | 9.9% | 15.6% | 20.6% | 12.2% | 11.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 11.8% | 6.3% | 14.0% | 22.6% | 12.4% | 9.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.2% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 18.5% | 11.3% | 9.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.3% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.71x | 0.53x | 0.70x | 1.25x | 1.38x | 0.88x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 6.7x | 5.6x | 7.0x | 12.9x | 9.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.9x | NA | 12.3x | 13.2x | 17.1x | 19.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.6x | 6.7x | 12.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.3x | 7.8x | 22.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.1x | 8.5x | 9.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 6,226 | 6,226 | 6,226 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 50,492 | 53,150 | 55,807 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (18,218) | (18,218) | (18,218) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 32,274 | 34,932 | 37,589 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 892.5 | 892.5 | 892.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 36.16 | 39.14 | 42.12 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 36.16 | 39.14 | 42.12 | 42.99 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -15.9% | -9.0% | -2.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | EVK | LXS | V1S | 2NF | AKU | BAS | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,477 | 3,262 | 6,554 | 8,284 | 14,497 | 56,588 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 379 | 411 | 1,311 | 1,317 | 1,566 | 2,573 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 500 | 589 | 58 | 303 | 248 | 5,799 | |
| (-) Debt | (4,529) | (2,490) | (3,791) | (3,069) | (5,846) | (25,443) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (65) | (5) | (216) | (42) | (213) | (1,147) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 6,762 | 1,767 | 3,916 | 6,793 | 10,252 | 38,370 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 466.0 | 86.3 | 75.4 | 102.3 | 171.0 | 892.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 14.51 | 20.46 | 51.95 | 66.40 | 59.94 | 42.99 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 14.51 | 20.46 | 51.95 | 66.40 | 59.94 | 42.99 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |