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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 15.4x - 17.0x | 16.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 11.0x - 12.1x | 11.6x |
| Fair Value | €30.55 - €35.91 | €33.23 |
| Upside | -36.2% - -25.0% | -30.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Evonik Industries AG | EVK | XTRA:EVK |
| LANXESS Aktiengesellschaft | LXS | XTRA:LXS |
| Arkema S.A. | V1S | DB:V1S |
| Syensqo SA/NV | 2NF | DUSE:2NF |
| Kemira Oyj | KEM | DB:KEM |
| BASF SE | BAS | DB:BAS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| EVK | LXS | V1S | 2NF | KEM | BAS | ||
| XTRA:EVK | XTRA:LXS | DB:V1S | DUSE:2NF | DB:KEM | DB:BAS | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -6.9% | -46.6% | -4.3% | NM- | 13.4% | -5.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -13.2% | -59.5% | -14.8% | -1.0% | 28.7% | -27.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.2% | 100.0% | -26.1% | -26.1% | 7.8% | 32.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.6% | 2.9% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 6.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.0% | -1.2% | 7.6% | 15.3% | 9.9% | 4.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.5% | 0.4% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 4.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.5% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 4.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.80x | 0.60x | 0.80x | 1.41x | 1.11x | 0.95x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.0x | 7.6x | 6.4x | 7.9x | 6.5x | 9.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 14.4x | NA | 14.1x | 14.9x | 9.7x | 21.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 9.7x | 14.2x | 14.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -67.1x | 6.3x | 24.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 15.4x | 16.2x | 17.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 2,889 | 2,889 | 2,889 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 44,457 | 46,797 | 49,137 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (18,218) | (18,218) | (18,218) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 26,239 | 28,579 | 30,919 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 892.5 | 892.5 | 892.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 29.40 | 32.02 | 34.64 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 29.40 | 32.02 | 34.64 | 47.90 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -38.6% | -33.2% | -27.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | EVK | LXS | V1S | 2NF | KEM | BAS | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,730 | 3,699 | 7,349 | 8,296 | 3,164 | 60,970 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 379 | 411 | 1,311 | 1,317 | 377 | 2,573 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 500 | 589 | 58 | 303 | 252 | 5,799 | |
| (-) Debt | (4,529) | (2,490) | (3,791) | (3,069) | (663) | (25,443) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (65) | (5) | (216) | (42) | (17) | (1,147) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 8,015 | 2,204 | 4,711 | 6,805 | 3,112 | 42,752 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 466.0 | 86.3 | 75.4 | 102.3 | 153.5 | 892.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 17.20 | 25.52 | 62.50 | 66.52 | 20.28 | 47.90 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 17.20 | 25.52 | 62.50 | 66.52 | 20.28 | 47.90 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |