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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 15.7x - 17.3x | 16.5x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.7x - 11.8x | 11.3x |
Fair Value | €30.35 - €35.55 | €32.95 |
Upside | -33.7% - -22.3% | -28.0% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Evonik Industries AG | EVK | XTRA:EVK |
LANXESS Aktiengesellschaft | LXS | XTRA:LXS |
Syensqo SA/NV | 2NF | DUSE:2NF |
Arkema S.A. | V1S | DB:V1S |
Kemira Oyj | KEM | DB:KEM |
BASF SE | BAS | DB:BAS |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
EVK | LXS | 2NF | V1S | KEM | BAS | ||
XTRA:EVK | XTRA:LXS | DUSE:2NF | DB:V1S | DB:KEM | DB:BAS | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -6.9% | -46.6% | NM- | -4.3% | 13.4% | -5.1% | |
3Y CAGR | -13.2% | -59.5% | -1.0% | -14.8% | 28.7% | -27.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 13.5% | 129.8% | -30.0% | -4.3% | 7.8% | 0.9% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 6.8% | 3.3% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 4.0% | -1.2% | 15.3% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 4.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 5.5% | 0.4% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 12.3% | 4.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 5.8% | 0.9% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 4.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.76x | 0.65x | 1.25x | 0.81x | 1.06x | 0.88x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.7x | 7.5x | 6.9x | 5.8x | 6.2x | 9.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 13.1x | 72.7x | 12.8x | 12.2x | 9.2x | 21.2x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 9.2x | 12.8x | 72.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -67.1x | 6.3x | 24.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 15.7x | 16.5x | 17.3x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 2,717 | 2,717 | 2,717 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 42,648 | 44,892 | 47,137 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (16,993) | (16,993) | (16,993) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 25,655 | 27,899 | 30,144 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 892.5 | 892.5 | 892.5 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 28.74 | 31.26 | 33.77 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 28.74 | 31.26 | 33.77 | 45.75 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -37.2% | -31.7% | -26.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | EVK | LXS | 2NF | V1S | KEM | BAS | |
Enterprise Value | 11,550 | 4,172 | 7,135 | 7,753 | 3,027 | 57,826 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 733 | 420 | 610 | 1,118 | 377 | 2,374 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 475 | 657 | 316 | 59 | 252 | 6,390 | |
(-) Debt | (4,274) | (3,001) | (2,072) | (3,843) | (663) | (24,491) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (82) | (6) | (53) | (220) | (17) | (1,266) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 8,402 | 2,242 | 5,936 | 4,867 | 2,975 | 40,833 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 466.0 | 86.3 | 89.2 | 75.1 | 154.3 | 892.5 | |
Implied Stock Price | 18.03 | 25.96 | 66.52 | 64.80 | 19.28 | 45.75 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 18.03 | 25.96 | 66.52 | 64.80 | 19.28 | 45.75 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |