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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.5x - 0.6x | 0.6x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.5x - 0.5x | 0.5x |
| Fair Value | €14.11 - €16.60 | €15.35 |
| Upside | 52.3% - 79.3% | 65.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Transat A.T. Inc. | TRZ | TSX:TRZ |
| Air France-KLM SA | AFRA.F | OTCPK:AFRA.F |
| Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA | NAS | OB:NAS |
| United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | UAL * | BMV:UAL* |
| JetBlue Airways Corporation | JBLU * | BMV:JBLU* |
| Air Canada | ADH2 | DB:ADH2 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| TRZ | AFRA.F | NAS | UAL * | JBLU * | ADH2 | |||
| TSX:TRZ | OTCPK:AFRA.F | OB:NAS | BMV:UAL* | BMV:JBLU* | DB:ADH2 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.3% | 3.0% | -4.7% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 197.4% | 30.0% | 88.9% | 32.3% | 15.4% | 51.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.1% | 4.8% | 33.8% | 6.2% | -3.5% | 1.9% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -101.5% | -8.2% | -38.1% | -11.2% | -16.8% | -25.4% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.6% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | -0.3% | 10.6% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | -1.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 9.3% | -1.0% | 5.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -0.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 9.3% | -1.0% | 5.9% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.56x | 0.42x | 0.50x | 0.72x | 0.73x | 0.43x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | -448.3x | 8.3x | 9.2x | 7.8x | -73.1x | 7.2x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.02x | 0.07x | 0.35x | 0.41x | 0.19x | 0.21x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.42x | 0.56x | 0.73x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.43x | 1.00x | 3.21x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.54x | 0.56x | 0.59x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 22,255 | 22,255 | 22,255 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 11,933 | 12,561 | 13,189 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,831) | (4,831) | (4,831) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 7,102 | 7,730 | 8,358 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 322.7 | 322.7 | 322.7 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 22.01 | 23.95 | 25.90 | |||||
| FX Rate: CAD/EUR | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 14.15 | 15.41 | 16.66 | 9.26 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 52.9% | 66.4% | 79.9% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TRZ | AFRA.F | NAS | UAL * | JBLU * | ADH2 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,859 | 13,456 | 17,154 | 41,810 | 7,145 | 9,477 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 389 | 6,019 | 10,880 | 14,475 | 3,610 | 6,982 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 216 | 0 | 1,267 | 510 | 857 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,188) | (14,642) | (16,077) | (33,633) | (9,142) | (12,670) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (2,563) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 60 | 2,486 | 11,957 | 23,919 | 2,123 | 4,646 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 39.6 | 308.5 | 963.9 | 327.3 | 392.3 | 322.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1.52 | 8.06 | 12.41 | 73.07 | 5.41 | 14.40 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.55 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.52 | 8.91 | 12.41 | 1,458.00 | 108.00 | 9.26 | |
| Trading Currency | CAD | USD | NOK | MXN | MXN | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.55 | |