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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 21.2x - 23.5x | 22.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 6.4x - 7.1x | 6.7x |
| Fair Value | €8.15 - €9.53 | €8.84 |
| Upside | -24.8% - -12.1% | -18.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Aperam S.A. | APAM | BME:APAM |
| Salzgitter AG | SZG | DB:SZG |
| thyssenkrupp AG | TKA | DB:TKA |
| Outokumpu Oyj | OUT1V | HLSE:OUT1V |
| Voestalpine AG | VAS | DB:VAS |
| Acerinox, S.A. | ACE1 | DB:ACE1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| APAM | SZG | TKA | OUT1V | VAS | ACE1 | ||
| BME:APAM | DB:SZG | DB:TKA | HLSE:OUT1V | DB:VAS | DB:ACE1 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -13.8% | NM- | NM- | NM- | 5.2% | 0.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -54.3% | -53.8% | NM- | NM- | -34.4% | -36.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 236.7% | -144.4% | 108.1% | 32.5% | -15.9% | -49.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.2% | 1.8% | -2.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 0.6% | 0.4% | -4.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 8.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 1.4% | 0.6% | -0.4% | -1.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.7% | -0.5% | 0.5% | -1.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.49x | 0.05x | 0.12x | 0.29x | 0.46x | 0.70x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.3x | 2.7x | 5.0x | 17.0x | 6.8x | 12.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 28.7x | -10.2x | 23.4x | -22.5x | 20.3x | 23.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -22.5x | 20.3x | 28.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 2.4x | 6.0x | 28.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 21.2x | 22.3x | 23.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 166 | 166 | 166 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,516 | 3,701 | 3,886 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,243) | (1,243) | (1,243) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,273 | 2,458 | 2,643 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 249.2 | 249.2 | 249.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.12 | 9.86 | 10.60 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 9.12 | 9.86 | 10.60 | 10.84 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -15.9% | -9.0% | -2.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | APAM | SZG | TKA | OUT1V | VAS | ACE1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,093 | 497 | 3,924 | 1,734 | 7,121 | 3,945 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 239 | 765 | 4,554 | 307 | 1,276 | 1,153 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 4 | 1,709 | 166 | 78 | 322 | 10 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,382) | (1,722) | (822) | (477) | (3,589) | (2,365) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (15) | (5) | (778) | 0 | (234) | (41) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,939 | 1,244 | 7,044 | 1,642 | 4,897 | 2,702 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 72.3 | 54.1 | 622.5 | 452.1 | 171.5 | 249.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 26.80 | 23.00 | 11.32 | 3.63 | 28.56 | 10.84 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 26.80 | 23.00 | 11.32 | 3.63 | 28.56 | 10.84 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |