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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.1x - 10.0x | 9.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.8x - 8.7x | 8.3x |
| Fair Value | €40.20 - €46.26 | €43.23 |
| Upside | -16.2% - -3.6% | -9.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Canfor Pulp Products Inc. | CFX | TSX:CFX |
| West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | WFG | TSX:WFG |
| Western Forest Products Inc. | WEF | TSX:WEF |
| Interfor Corporation | IFP | TSX:IFP |
| Canfor Corporation | CFP | TSX:CFP |
| Stella-Jones Inc. | 97S | DB:97S |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CFX | WFG | WEF | IFP | CFP | 97S | ||
| TSX:CFX | TSX:WFG | TSX:WEF | TSX:IFP | TSX:CFP | DB:97S | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -8.7% | 46.7% | NM- | -20.0% | NM- | 15.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -31.2% | -47.5% | NM- | -71.0% | NM- | 17.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 340.8% | -46.8% | 91.6% | 542.4% | 96.1% | -8.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.2% | 23.5% | 6.8% | 17.6% | 13.3% | 14.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -5.2% | 8.3% | -3.8% | 1.9% | -2.5% | 16.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 4.6% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 1.0% | -3.2% | 16.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.8% | 8.0% | -0.1% | 5.8% | -0.1% | 16.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.16x | 0.91x | 0.17x | 0.50x | 0.43x | 1.66x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.3x | 11.3x | -129.8x | 8.6x | -439.0x | 10.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 20.0x | -72.4x | -3.9x | -344.4x | -6.1x | 11.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -439.0x | 2.3x | 11.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.6x | 10.3x | 11.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.1x | 9.6x | 10.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 557 | 557 | 557 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,055 | 5,321 | 5,587 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,537) | (1,537) | (1,537) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,518 | 3,784 | 4,050 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 55.2 | 55.2 | 55.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 63.68 | 68.50 | 73.31 | ||||
| FX Rate: CAD/EUR | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 39.60 | 42.60 | 45.59 | 48.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -17.5% | -11.3% | -5.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CFX | WFG | WEF | IFP | CFP | 97S | |
| Enterprise Value | 118 | 5,289 | 182 | 1,470 | 2,283 | 5,800 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1 | 646 | 4 | 16 | 113 | 65 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 95 | 14 | |
| (-) Debt | (77) | (336) | (50) | (856) | (725) | (1,616) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (8) | 0 | (276) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 43 | 5,599 | 128 | 642 | 1,490 | 4,263 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 65.2 | 78.9 | 10.6 | 51.5 | 116.7 | 55.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.66 | 71.00 | 12.12 | 12.47 | 12.76 | 77.18 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.61 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.66 | 97.72 | 12.12 | 12.47 | 12.76 | 48.00 | |
| Trading Currency | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.61 | |