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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.3x - 0.3x | 0.3x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.3x - 0.4x | 0.3x |
| Fair Value | €3.79 - €4.22 | €4.01 |
| Upside | 16.0% - 29.2% | 22.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| ZE PAK SA | ZEP | WSE:ZEP |
| Energa SA | ENG | WSE:ENG |
| EC Bedzin S.A. | BDZ | WSE:BDZ |
| Polenergia S.A. | PEP | WSE:PEP |
| Zespól Elektrocieplowni Wroclawskich KOGENERACJA S.A. | KGN | WSE:KGN |
| ENEA S.A. | 58S | DB:58S |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| ZEP | ENG | BDZ | PEP | KGN | 58S | |||
| WSE:ZEP | WSE:ENG | WSE:BDZ | WSE:PEP | WSE:KGN | DB:58S | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.5% | 16.4% | 3.6% | 11.6% | 26.8% | 28.3% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 13.3% | 21.2% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 38.8% | 34.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 26.9% | -0.6% | -45.0% | -23.0% | -2.2% | -15.5% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 1.9% | 8.0% | -51.6% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 7.0% | -62.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 2.3% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 16.2% | 7.6% | -81.0% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 10.6% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 15.5% | 4.9% | -48.9% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 19.5% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.13x | 0.59x | 0.36x | 0.95x | 0.41x | 0.24x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 0.8x | 12.1x | -0.7x | 8.8x | 3.6x | 1.2x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.36x | 0.22x | 0.47x | 1.14x | 0.26x | 0.22x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.13x | 0.41x | 0.95x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.12x | 0.28x | 0.57x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.25x | 0.26x | 0.28x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 34,018 | 34,018 | 34,018 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 8,554 | 9,005 | 9,455 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (658) | (658) | (658) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 7,896 | 8,346 | 8,797 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 529.7 | 529.7 | 529.7 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 14.91 | 15.76 | 16.61 | |||||
| FX Rate: PLN/EUR | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.51 | 3.71 | 3.91 | 3.27 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 7.4% | 13.5% | 19.6% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ZEP | ENG | BDZ | PEP | KGN | 58S | |
| Enterprise Value | (512) | 12,472 | 56 | 4,106 | 1,129 | 8,012 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 566 | 1,453 | 16 | 1,489 | 15 | 7,451 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 800 | 147 | 0 | 1,708 | 0 | 200 | |
| (-) Debt | (33) | (8,592) | (0) | (2,377) | (436) | (7,101) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2) | (900) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,209) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 818 | 4,580 | 72 | 4,927 | 708 | 7,353 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 50.8 | 414.1 | 3.0 | 77.2 | 14.9 | 529.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 16.10 | 11.06 | 24.05 | 63.80 | 47.50 | 13.88 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 4.25 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 16.10 | 11.06 | 24.05 | 63.80 | 47.50 | 3.27 | |
| Trading Currency | PLN | PLN | PLN | PLN | PLN | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 4.25 | |