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Sumitomo Rubber Industries Ltd

DB:108

日本 / 非必需消費品 / 汽車零件

綜觀

10 年 DCF 收入退出價

股價

11.00 EUR

公允價值

20.19 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	8.3% - 7.2%	7.8%
Terminal Revenue Multiple	0.5x - 0.6x	0.6x
Fair Value	€19.02 - €21.43	€20.19
Upside	79.4% - 102.2%	90.4%

2.6%

Revenue 10y CAGR

14.3%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

2.4%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Revenue Exit

股價

11.00 EUR

公允價值

20.19 EUR

看漲

90.4%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(JPY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	1,211,856	1,239,889	1,287,000	1,345,268	1,395,000	1,422,900	1,451,358	1,480,385	1,509,993	1,540,193	1,570,997
% Growth	2.9%	2.3%	3.8%	4.5%	3.7%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	167,489	147,070	175,500	193,000	205,000	209,100	213,282	217,548	221,899	226,337	230,863
% of Revenue	13.8%	11.9%	13.6%	14.3%	14.7%	14.7%	14.7%	14.7%	14.7%	14.7%	14.7%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		147,070	175,500	193,000	205,000	209,100	213,282	217,548	221,899	226,337	230,863
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(57,270)	(67,600)	(72,650)	(77,650)	(79,203)	(80,787)	(82,403)	(84,051)	(85,732)	(87,447)

EBIT		89,800	107,900	120,350	127,350	129,897	132,495	135,145	137,848	140,605	143,417
Pro forma Taxes		(28,736)	(34,528)	(38,512)	(40,752)	(41,567)	(42,398)	(43,246)	(44,111)	(44,994)	(45,893)
NOPAT	57,338	61,064	73,372	81,838	86,598	88,330	90,097	91,898	93,736	95,611	97,523

Capital Expenditures	(56,797)	(74,000)	(77,000)	(80,500)	(81,500)	(83,130)	(81,710)	(82,113)	(82,318)	(82,047)	(82,159)
NWC Investment	(8,530)	(6,940)	(11,663)	(14,425)	(12,312)	(6,907)	(7,045)	(7,186)	(7,330)	(7,476)	(7,626)
(+) D&A	83,168	57,270	67,600	72,650	77,650	79,203	80,787	82,403	84,051	85,732	87,447

Free Cash Flow	75,179	37,394	52,309	59,563	70,436	77,496	82,128	85,002	88,140	91,820	95,185
% Growth			40%	14%	18%	10%	6%	3%	4%	4%	4%

載入錯誤

Sumitomo Rubber Industries Ltd

DB:108

日本 / 非必需消費品 / 汽車零件

10 年 DCF 收入退出價