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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.0x - 9.9x | 9.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.4x - 6.0x | 5.7x |
| Fair Value | kr139.97 - kr186.22 | kr163.10 |
| Upside | 37.8% - 83.3% | 60.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S | NTG | CPSE:NTG |
| DSV A/S | DSV | CPSE:DSV |
| AS Tallink Grupp | TAL1T | TLSE:TAL1T |
| Erria A/S | ERRIA | CPSE:ERRIA |
| XPO, Inc. | UX2A | DB:UX2A |
| DFDS A/S | DFDS | CPSE:DFDS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| NTG | DSV | TAL1T | ERRIA | UX2A | DFDS | ||
| CPSE:NTG | CPSE:DSV | TLSE:TAL1T | CPSE:ERRIA | DB:UX2A | CPSE:DFDS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 20.5% | 18.8% | -2.4% | NM- | 2.2% | 3.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -0.8% | 0.1% | 71.5% | 79.8% | 18.0% | 10.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -14.2% | 9.6% | -50.8% | 34.6% | 4.9% | -30.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 12.5% | 13.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.6% | 12.4% | 23.5% | 3.9% | 12.8% | 14.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.8% | 10.2% | 17.6% | 5.5% | 15.1% | 11.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.1% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 5.2% | 15.2% | 8.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.62x | 2.15x | 1.21x | 0.24x | 2.43x | 0.71x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.2x | 21.8x | 10.2x | 4.6x | 15.9x | 8.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.7x | 24.3x | 65.5x | 5.3x | 27.2x | 34.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.6x | 12.2x | 21.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 7.6x | 14.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.0x | 9.5x | 9.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 2,630 | 2,630 | 2,630 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 23,612 | 24,855 | 26,097 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (16,164) | (16,164) | (16,164) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 7,448 | 8,691 | 9,933 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 54.0 | 54.0 | 54.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 137.93 | 160.95 | 183.96 | ||||
| FX Rate: DKK/DKK | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 137.93 | 160.95 | 183.96 | 101.60 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 35.8% | 58.4% | 81.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | NTG | DSV | TAL1T | ERRIA | UX2A | DFDS | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,484 | 410,777 | 919 | 44 | 19,421 | 21,650 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 491 | 16,422 | 36 | 22 | 225 | 1,937 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,012) | (108,138) | (496) | (16) | (4,250) | (18,024) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (96) | (561) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (79) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,867 | 318,500 | 460 | 50 | 15,396 | 5,486 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 21.7 | 235.5 | 743.6 | 11.4 | 117.8 | 54.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 178.00 | 1,352.50 | 0.62 | 4.38 | 130.74 | 101.60 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 178.00 | 1,352.50 | 0.62 | 4.38 | 111.60 | 101.60 | |
| Trading Currency | DKK | DKK | EUR | DKK | EUR | DKK | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |