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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.2x - 9.1x | 8.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.2x - 5.8x | 5.5x |
| Fair Value | kr142.15 - kr190.07 | kr166.11 |
| Upside | 17.5% - 57.1% | 37.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S | NTG | CPSE:NTG |
| DSV A/S | DSV | CPSE:DSV |
| Erria A/S | ERRIA | CPSE:ERRIA |
| AS Tallink Grupp | TAL1T | TLSE:TAL1T |
| XPO, Inc. | UX2A | DB:UX2A |
| DFDS A/S | DFDS | CPSE:DFDS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| NTG | DSV | ERRIA | TAL1T | UX2A | DFDS | ||
| CPSE:NTG | CPSE:DSV | CPSE:ERRIA | TLSE:TAL1T | DB:UX2A | CPSE:DFDS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 20.5% | 18.8% | NM- | -2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -0.8% | 0.1% | 79.8% | 71.5% | 18.0% | 10.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -9.0% | -1.6% | 32.8% | -50.8% | 14.0% | -24.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.6% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 13.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.6% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 23.5% | 12.8% | 14.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.8% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 17.6% | 15.1% | 11.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.5% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 9.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.68x | 2.13x | 0.27x | 1.21x | 2.52x | 0.77x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.2x | 20.9x | 4.9x | 10.2x | 16.6x | 7.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.7x | 22.3x | 5.6x | 65.3x | 28.1x | 23.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.9x | 12.2x | 20.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 7.6x | 14.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.2x | 8.7x | 9.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 2,969 | 2,969 | 2,969 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 24,410 | 25,695 | 26,979 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (16,907) | (16,907) | (16,907) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 7,503 | 8,788 | 10,072 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 54.0 | 54.0 | 54.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 138.95 | 162.75 | 186.54 | ||||
| FX Rate: DKK/DKK | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 138.95 | 162.75 | 186.54 | 121.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 14.8% | 34.5% | 54.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | NTG | DSV | ERRIA | TAL1T | UX2A | DFDS | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,703 | 363,569 | 51 | 917 | 19,842 | 23,440 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 407 | 85,638 | 21 | 36 | 212 | 2,227 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,509) | (82,695) | (19) | (496) | (4,135) | (19,059) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (99) | (325) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (77) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,502 | 366,187 | 53 | 457 | 15,919 | 6,533 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 21.7 | 235.5 | 11.4 | 743.6 | 117.8 | 54.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 207.50 | 1,555.00 | 4.70 | 0.62 | 135.13 | 121.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 207.50 | 1,555.00 | 4.70 | 0.62 | 115.05 | 121.00 | |
| Trading Currency | DKK | DKK | DKK | EUR | EUR | DKK | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |