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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 21.7x - 24.0x | 22.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 13.6x - 15.0x | 14.3x |
| Fair Value | kr85.43 - kr127.39 | kr106.41 |
| Upside | -30.0% - 4.4% | -12.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S | NTG | CPSE:NTG |
| DSV A/S | DSV | CPSE:DSV |
| Erria A/S | ERRIA | CPSE:ERRIA |
| AS Tallink Grupp | TAL1T | TLSE:TAL1T |
| XPO, Inc. | UX2A | DB:UX2A |
| DFDS A/S | DFDS | CPSE:DFDS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| NTG | DSV | ERRIA | TAL1T | UX2A | DFDS | ||
| CPSE:NTG | CPSE:DSV | CPSE:ERRIA | TLSE:TAL1T | DB:UX2A | CPSE:DFDS | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 20.5% | 19.3% | NM- | -4.7% | 3.0% | -3.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -1.3% | -0.3% | 97.8% | NM- | 26.8% | 4.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -10.5% | -2.2% | 34.2% | -82.0% | 16.3% | -51.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | -2.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.5% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 13.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 4.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.3% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.69x | 2.13x | 0.26x | 1.35x | 2.48x | 0.78x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.4x | 20.9x | 4.7x | 10.3x | 16.3x | 7.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.9x | 22.3x | 5.3x | 47.2x | 27.5x | 23.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.3x | 22.3x | 47.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 11.5x | 13.2x | 33.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 21.7x | 22.8x | 24.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,005 | 1,005 | 1,005 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 21,798 | 22,946 | 24,093 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (16,907) | (16,907) | (16,907) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,891 | 6,039 | 7,186 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 54.0 | 54.0 | 54.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 90.59 | 111.83 | 133.08 | ||||
| FX Rate: DKK/DKK | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 90.59 | 111.83 | 133.08 | 122.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -25.7% | -8.3% | 9.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | NTG | DSV | ERRIA | TAL1T | UX2A | DFDS | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,735 | 358,153 | 48 | 1,026 | 19,650 | 23,494 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 407 | 85,638 | 21 | 16 | 212 | 2,227 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,509) | (82,695) | (19) | (585) | (4,135) | (19,059) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (99) | (325) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (77) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,534 | 360,771 | 51 | 457 | 15,727 | 6,587 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 21.7 | 235.5 | 11.4 | 743.6 | 117.8 | 54.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 209.00 | 1,532.00 | 4.46 | 0.62 | 133.50 | 122.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 209.00 | 1,532.00 | 4.46 | 0.62 | 113.70 | 122.00 | |
| Trading Currency | DKK | DKK | DKK | EUR | EUR | DKK | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |