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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 36.5x - 40.3x | 38.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2.8x - 3.1x | 3.0x |
| Fair Value | .د.م 464.90 - .د.م 544.99 | .د.م 504.94 |
| Upside | -30.6% - -18.7% | -24.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Colorado S.A. | COL | CBSE:COL |
| Maghreb Oxygène S.A. | MOX | CBSE:MOX |
| China Boton Group Company Limited | 3318 | SEHK:3318 |
| Gulf International Chemicals SAOG | GICI | MSM:GICI |
| Mega Polietilen Köpük Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi | MEGAP | IBSE:MEGAP |
| Société Nationale d'Electrolyse et de Pétrochimie S.A. | SNP | CBSE:SNP |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| COL | MOX | 3318 | GICI | MEGAP | SNP | ||
| CBSE:COL | CBSE:MOX | SEHK:3318 | MSM:GICI | IBSE:MEGAP | CBSE:SNP | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | -8.7% | -5.5% | -8.5% | 134.7% | -20.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | -11.1% | -12.6% | 42.8% | 220.1% | -42.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NM | 46.3% | -9.2% | -77.0% | 81.6% | -30.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.2% | 12.3% | 19.7% | 4.1% | 8.8% | 13.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | NA | 6.5% | 15.4% | 5.6% | 17.9% | 8.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | NA | 8.8% | 19.6% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NA | 8.8% | 16.4% | 1.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.39x | 1.20x | 2.61x | 0.05x | 0.16x | 3.48x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | NA | 13.6x | 15.9x | 3.1x | 2.0x | 49.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.5x | 46.4x | 29.2x | 10.3x | 2.1x | -60.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.0x | 8.3x | 15.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.9x | 8.2x | 49.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 36.5x | 38.4x | 40.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 44 | 44 | 44 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,616 | 1,701 | 1,786 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (675) | (675) | (675) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 941 | 1,026 | 1,111 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 412.62 | 449.91 | 487.21 | ||||
| FX Rate: MAD/MAD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 412.62 | 449.91 | 487.21 | 670.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -38.4% | -32.8% | -27.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | COL | MOX | 3318 | GICI | MEGAP | SNP | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,555 | 375 | 3,986 | (0) | 2,194 | 2,202 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 0 | 17 | 377 | 1 | 24 | 1 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 80 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 147 | |
| (-) Debt | 0 | (122) | (2,119) | (0) | (898) | (823) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (278) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,555 | 349 | 1,968 | 1 | 1,320 | 1,528 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 16.1 | 0.8 | 1,080.0 | 21.0 | 275.0 | 2.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 96.45 | 430.00 | 1.82 | 0.07 | 4.80 | 670.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 96.45 | 430.00 | 1.99 | 0.07 | 4.80 | 670.00 | |
| Trading Currency | MAD | MAD | HKD | OMR | TRY | MAD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |