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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 21.2x - 23.4x | 22.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 23.2x - 25.6x | 24.4x |
| Fair Value | EGP 0.25 - EGP 0.29 | EGP 0.27 |
| Upside | -30.2% - -20.0% | -25.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Extracted Oil & Derivatives Co. | ZEOT | CASE:ZEOT |
| AlKhair River for Development Agricultural Investment and Environmental Services | KRDI | CASE:KRDI |
| Arabian Food Industries Company (DOMTY) - S.A.E | DOMT | CASE:DOMT |
| Delta Sugar Company | SUGR | CASE:SUGR |
| Ismailia / Misr Poultry Company S.A.E | ISMA | CASE:ISMA |
| Cairo Oil & Soap Company | COSG | CASE:COSG |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ZEOT | KRDI | DOMT | SUGR | ISMA | COSG | ||
| CASE:ZEOT | CASE:KRDI | CASE:DOMT | CASE:SUGR | CASE:ISMA | CASE:COSG | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -18.8% | NM- | 28.5% | 43.2% | 2.7% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 38.6% | 69.2% | 36.8% | 9.0% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -83.2% | 38.1% | 14.9% | -21.2% | 3851.1% | -35.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 0.4% | 45.4% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 22.2% | -43.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 0.7% | 43.9% | 12.4% | 22.2% | -96.4% | 7.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.3% | 46.8% | 12.5% | 19.8% | 83.3% | 8.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.2% | 44.8% | 11.6% | 18.4% | 84.6% | 5.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.22x | 6.25x | 0.86x | 0.80x | 16.20x | 1.51x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 129.5x | 13.9x | 7.4x | 4.3x | 19.1x | 25.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -775.7x | 18.4x | 8.2x | 4.5x | 22.6x | 30.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.3x | 13.9x | 129.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -51.2x | -9.2x | 16.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 21.2x | 22.3x | 23.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 55 | 55 | 55 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,177 | 1,239 | 1,301 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (305) | (305) | (305) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 872 | 934 | 996 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,120.0 | 3,120.0 | 3,120.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.32 | ||||
| FX Rate: EGP/EGP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.32 | 0.36 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -21.7% | -16.1% | -10.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ZEOT | KRDI | DOMT | SUGR | ISMA | COSG | |
| Enterprise Value | 721 | 1,854 | 7,939 | 6,212 | 1,043 | 1,419 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 27 | 2 | 699 | 920 | 12 | 5 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 5 | 0 | 343 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (31) | (671) | (2,765) | (102) | (134) | (310) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (91) | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 718 | 1,100 | 5,873 | 7,373 | 921 | 1,114 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 200.0 | 2,000.0 | 282.6 | 142.2 | 89.9 | 3,120.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3.59 | 0.55 | 20.78 | 51.85 | 10.25 | 0.36 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.59 | 0.55 | 20.78 | 51.85 | 10.25 | 0.36 | |
| Trading Currency | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |