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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | -1.4x - -1.5x | -1.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 1.8x - 1.9x | 1.9x |
| Fair Value | COP 615.42 - COP 632.47 | COP 623.94 |
| Upside | 32.3% - 36.0% | 34.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Construcciones Civiles S.A. | CONCIVILES | BVC:CONCIVILES |
| Construcciones El Condor S.A. | ELCONDOR | BVC:ELCONDOR |
| Besalco S.A. | BESALCO | SNSE:BESALCO |
| Aveng Limited | AEG | JSE:AEG |
| China Shuifa Singyes Energy Holdings Limited | 750 | SEHK:750 |
| Constructora Conconcreto S.A. | CONCONCRET | BVC:CONCONCRET |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CONCIVILES | ELCONDOR | BESALCO | AEG | 750 | CONCONCRET | ||
| BVC:CONCIVILES | BVC:ELCONDOR | SNSE:BESALCO | JSE:AEG | SEHK:750 | BVC:CONCONCRET | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 23.3% | -9.7% | 18.0% | 35.3% | NM- | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | 3.0% | -17.4% | 26.5% | -7.6% | 0.5% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.8% | -18.8% | 8.1% | 211.9% | 1.0% | -206.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 14.8% | 9.9% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 12.1% | 1.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.5% | -3.7% | 15.7% | -1.4% | 18.0% | 7.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 17.7% | 3.1% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 17.7% | -7.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 20.2% | 1.5% | 13.8% | 0.8% | 17.7% | -7.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.22x | 1.00x | 0.74x | -0.02x | 2.72x | 0.02x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.1x | 67.1x | 5.4x | -3.1x | 15.4x | -0.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 1.8x | -12.3x | 8.2x | 9.9x | 25.2x | -0.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -3.1x | 5.4x | 67.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -13.0x | -6.2x | 3.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | -1.4x | -1.4x | -1.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | (60,499) | (60,499) | (60,499) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 81,770 | 86,074 | 90,378 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 514,213 | 514,213 | 514,213 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 595,983 | 600,287 | 604,591 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,134.3 | 1,134.3 | 1,134.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 525.44 | 529.23 | 533.03 | ||||
| FX Rate: COP/COP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 525.44 | 529.23 | 533.03 | 465.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 13.0% | 13.8% | 14.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CONCIVILES | ELCONDOR | BESALCO | AEG | 750 | CONCONCRET | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,912 | 1,173,642 | 766,942 | (66) | 12,517 | 13,216 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 7,908 | 30,723 | 89,909 | 256 | 828 | 191,661 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,267 | 18,725 | 49,485 | 0 | 28 | 581,067 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,671) | (953,139) | (425,285) | (126) | (11,620) | (257,216) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (13,994) | (0) | (1,072) | (1,299) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 16,416 | 269,952 | 467,057 | 64 | 680 | 527,429 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 96.0 | 574.4 | 576.2 | 132.5 | 2,521.1 | 1,134.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 171.00 | 470.00 | 810.62 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 465.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.09 | 0.91 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 171.00 | 470.00 | 810.62 | 5.53 | 0.30 | 465.00 | |
| Trading Currency | COP | COP | CLP | ZAR | HKD | COP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.09 | 0.91 | 1.00 | |