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Societatea Energetica Electrica SA

BVB:EL

羅馬尼亞 / 公用事業 / 電力公用事業

綜觀

10 年 DCF 增長退出價

股價

12.48 RON

公允價值

20.24 RON

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	11.5% - 10.5%	11.0%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	0.8% - 1.8%	1.3%
Fair Value	lei 18.03 - lei 22.93	lei 20.24
Upside	44.5% - 83.7%	62.2%

0.7%

Revenue 10y CAGR

20.6%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股價

12.48 RON

公允價值

20.24 RON

看漲

62.2%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(RON in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	10,776	10,432	10,086	9,969	10,196	10,457	10,666	10,879	11,097	11,319	11,545
% Growth	-18.1%	-3.2%	-3.3%	-1.2%	2.3%	2.6%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	1,344	2,387	1,778	1,727	1,975	2,250	2,295	2,341	2,388	2,435	2,484
% of Revenue	12.5%	22.9%	17.6%	17.3%	19.4%	21.5%	21.5%	21.5%	21.5%	21.5%	21.5%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(RON in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		2,387	1,778	1,727	1,975	2,250	2,295	2,341	2,388	2,435	2,484	2,484
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(989)	(1,159)	(1,175)	(1,207)	(1,242)	(1,267)	(1,292)	(1,318)	(1,344)	(1,371)	(927)

EBIT		1,398	619	552	768	1,008	1,028	1,049	1,070	1,091	1,113	1,557
Pro forma Taxes		(224)	(99)	(88)	(123)	(161)	(165)	(168)	(171)	(175)	(178)	(249)
NOPAT	638	1,174	520	464	645	847	864	881	899	917	935	1,308

Capital Expenditures	#NUM!	(906)	(933)	(959)	(968)	(986)	(971)	(975)	(977)	(974)	(976)	(976)
NWC Investment	532	77	77	26	(51)	(58)	(47)	(48)	(49)	(50)	(51)	(32)
(+) D&A	584	989	1,159	1,175	1,207	1,242	1,267	1,292	1,318	1,344	1,371	927

Free Cash Flow	#NUM!	1,334	823	706	833	1,044	1,113	1,150	1,190	1,237	1,280	1,227
% Growth		NM	-38%	-14%	18%	25%	7%	3%	3%	4%	3%	-4%

載入錯誤

Societatea Energetica Electrica SA

BVB:EL

羅馬尼亞 / 公用事業 / 電力公用事業

10 年 DCF 增長退出價