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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.4x - 10.4x | 9.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.6x - 8.4x | 8.0x |
| Fair Value | лв5.04 - лв5.70 | лв5.37 |
| Upside | -12.1% - -0.7% | -6.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| ALK-Abelló A/S | ALK B | CPSE:ALKB |
| Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | TEV | BUL:TEV |
| GSK plc | GS71 | DB:GS71 |
| Novartis AG | NOVN | SWX:NOVN |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | BUL:JNJ |
| Sopharma AD | SFA | BUL:SFA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ALK B | TEV | GS71 | NOVN | JNJ | SFA | ||
| CPSE:ALKB | BUL:TEV | DB:GS71 | SWX:NOVN | BUL:JNJ | BUL:SFA | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 53.1% | 0.0% | -4.2% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 39.7% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 6.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 53.5% | 2.3% | -19.3% | 17.9% | -3.3% | -11.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.8% | 27.1% | 31.3% | 36.0% | 34.9% | 6.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 17.3% | 27.3% | 34.0% | 37.5% | 36.4% | 6.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 23.1% | 26.8% | 26.5% | 39.9% | 33.7% | 5.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 23.1% | 26.8% | 26.5% | 39.9% | 33.7% | 5.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 5.74x | 1.88x | 2.18x | 4.29x | 4.25x | 0.55x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 24.8x | 7.0x | 8.2x | 10.7x | 12.6x | 10.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 29.0x | 9.2x | 11.1x | 13.6x | 16.7x | 15.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.0x | 10.7x | 24.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.7x | 7.9x | 10.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.4x | 9.9x | 10.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 113 | 113 | 113 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,064 | 1,120 | 1,176 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (201) | (201) | (201) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 863 | 919 | 975 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 166.4 | 166.4 | 166.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 5.19 | 5.52 | 5.86 | ||||
| FX Rate: BGN/BGN | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.19 | 5.52 | 5.86 | 5.74 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -9.7% | -3.8% | 2.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ALK B | TEV | GS71 | NOVN | JNJ | SFA | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,808 | 31,177 | 68,095 | 219,618 | 366,801 | 1,156 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 589 | 3,300 | 4,326 | 13,351 | 24,522 | 36 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 1,232 | 1,128 | 5,524 | 269 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,187) | (18,184) | (16,986) | (31,401) | (37,834) | (480) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (347) | 585 | (80) | 0 | (25) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 31,210 | 15,946 | 57,252 | 202,616 | 359,013 | 955 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 221.2 | 1,145.8 | 4,065.3 | 1,897.6 | 2,409.8 | 166.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 141.10 | 13.92 | 14.08 | 106.78 | 148.98 | 5.74 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 1.16 | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 141.10 | 12.70 | 16.55 | 92.03 | 135.96 | 5.74 | |
| Trading Currency | DKK | EUR | EUR | CHF | EUR | BGN | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 1.16 | 1.10 | 1.00 | |