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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.7x - 8.5x | 8.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.1x - 4.5x | 4.3x |
| Fair Value | R$141.26 - R$155.08 | R$148.17 |
| Upside | -17.1% - -9.0% | -13.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Delta Air Lines, Inc. | DAL | NYSE:DAL |
| Allegiant Travel Company | ALGT | NasdaqGS:ALGT |
| United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | UAL | NasdaqGS:UAL |
| American Airlines Group Inc. | AAL | NasdaqGS:AAL |
| LATAM Airlines Group S.A. | LTM | NYSE:LTM |
| Southwest Airlines Co. | S1OU34 | BOVESPA:S1OU34 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| DAL | ALGT | UAL | AAL | LTM | S1OU34 | ||
| NYSE:DAL | NasdaqGS:ALGT | NasdaqGS:UAL | NasdaqGS:AAL | NYSE:LTM | BOVESPA:S1OU34 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.6% | -11.2% | 3.8% | -2.0% | 8.1% | -16.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 10.1% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.5% | -34.2% | 3.8% | -10.9% | 28.3% | -22.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 0.6% | 11.4% | -3.3% | -5.7% | -0.5% | -2.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.4% | 16.2% | 14.5% | 11.9% | 15.7% | 8.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.3% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 18.2% | 6.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.3% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 18.2% | 6.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.75x | 0.89x | 0.71x | 0.67x | 1.16x | 0.69x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.6x | 8.4x | 5.0x | 6.5x | 6.4x | 11.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.6x | 23.9x | 7.6x | 10.8x | 9.7x | 66.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.0x | 6.4x | 8.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -14.7x | 6.3x | 11.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.7x | 8.1x | 8.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,671 | 1,671 | 1,671 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 12,868 | 13,546 | 14,223 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,034 | 1,034 | 1,034 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 13,902 | 14,580 | 15,257 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 592.7 | 592.7 | 592.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 23.46 | 24.60 | 25.74 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/BRL | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 133.71 | 140.22 | 146.74 | 170.43 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -21.5% | -17.7% | -13.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | DAL | ALGT | UAL | AAL | LTM | S1OU34 | |
| Enterprise Value | 45,931 | 2,233 | 40,494 | 36,348 | 14,400 | 16,687 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,069 | 781 | 14,475 | 7,618 | 1,962 | 8,725 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,846 | 52 | 1,267 | 515 | 0 | 367 | |
| (-) Debt | (23,871) | (2,150) | (33,633) | (37,544) | (7,150) | (8,058) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 27,975 | 916 | 22,603 | 6,937 | 9,225 | 17,721 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 641.6 | 17.7 | 327.3 | 657.6 | 294.9 | 592.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 43.60 | 51.65 | 69.05 | 10.55 | 31.28 | 29.90 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 43.60 | 51.65 | 69.05 | 10.55 | 31.28 | 170.43 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | |