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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.0x - 5.5x | 5.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.5x - 5.0x | 4.8x |
| Fair Value | R$28.88 - R$31.99 | R$30.44 |
| Upside | 3.1% - 14.3% | 8.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Usinas Siderúrgicas de Minas Gerais S.A. | USIM5 | BOVESPA:USIM5 |
| Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio | CBAV3 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 |
| Paranapanema S.A. | PMAM3 | BOVESPA:PMAM3 |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional | CSNA3 | BOVESPA:CSNA3 |
| Electro Aço Altona S.A. | EALT4 | BOVESPA:EALT4 |
| Panatlântica S.A. | PATI3 | BOVESPA:PATI3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| USIM5 | CBAV3 | PMAM3 | CSNA3 | EALT4 | PATI3 | ||
| BOVESPA:USIM5 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 | BOVESPA:PMAM3 | BOVESPA:CSNA3 | BOVESPA:EALT4 | BOVESPA:PATI3 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -4.7% | 2.3% | NM- | 8.3% | 27.4% | 22.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -51.6% | -16.4% | NM- | -27.4% | 29.6% | -30.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -16.0% | 319.8% | 58.7% | -6.9% | 66.7% | 107.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 16.7% | 11.0% | -33.4% | 25.3% | 15.4% | 9.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.0% | -6.1% | -63.2% | 18.2% | 15.1% | 3.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 12.1% | -55.1% | 17.6% | 22.2% | 6.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.4% | 12.1% | -55.1% | 17.6% | 22.2% | 6.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.38x | 0.75x | 11.56x | 0.96x | 0.73x | 0.33x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.0x | 6.2x | -21.0x | 5.4x | 3.3x | 4.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 40.6x | 14.5x | -15.6x | 10.1x | 4.1x | 5.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -21.0x | 5.4x | 7.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.5x | 4.9x | 10.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.0x | 5.3x | 5.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 143 | 143 | 143 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 718 | 755 | 793 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (16) | (16) | (16) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 702 | 739 | 777 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 23.9 | 23.9 | 23.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 29.32 | 30.90 | 32.48 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 29.32 | 30.90 | 32.48 | 28.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 4.7% | 10.4% | 16.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | USIM5 | CBAV3 | PMAM3 | CSNA3 | EALT4 | PATI3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,749 | 6,090 | 5,290 | 41,794 | 409 | 686 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,954 | 1,389 | 42 | 24,174 | 13 | 460 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,442 | 238 | 26 | 5,888 | 0 | 7 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,758) | (4,813) | (5,245) | (57,755) | (121) | (483) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,802) | (227) | 0 | (3,188) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 6,586 | 2,676 | 113 | 10,914 | 301 | 670 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,230.9 | 651.1 | 75.4 | 1,326.1 | 22.5 | 23.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.35 | 4.11 | 1.50 | 8.23 | 13.39 | 28.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.35 | 4.11 | 1.50 | 8.23 | 13.39 | 28.00 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |