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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 16.6x - 18.4x | 17.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.5x - 11.6x | 11.1x |
| Fair Value | R$3.22 - R$4.14 | R$3.68 |
| Upside | -20.8% - 2.0% | -9.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Graphic Packaging Holding Company | GPK | NYSE:GPK |
| Billerud AB (publ) | BLRD.Y | OTCPK:BLRD.Y |
| Suzano S.A. | SUZB3 | BOVESPA:SUZB3 |
| Packaging Corporation of America | P1KG34 | BOVESPA:P1KG34 |
| International Paper Company | I1PC34 | BOVESPA:I1PC34 |
| Klabin S.A. | KLBN3 | BOVESPA:KLBN3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| GPK | BLRD.Y | SUZB3 | P1KG34 | I1PC34 | KLBN3 | ||
| NYSE:GPK | OTCPK:BLRD.Y | BOVESPA:SUZB3 | BOVESPA:P1KG34 | BOVESPA:I1PC34 | BOVESPA:KLBN3 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 16.4% | 12.6% | 45.2% | 1.5% | -10.7% | 17.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 26.2% | -0.6% | -4.0% | -3.9% | -16.6% | -6.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -13.3% | 442.4% | 35.7% | 17.5% | -22.9% | 22.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 10.5% | 5.8% | 32.7% | 15.1% | 7.5% | 19.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.7% | 1.8% | 27.0% | 14.4% | 6.2% | 16.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.0% | 4.5% | 30.8% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 17.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.5% | 4.9% | 30.8% | 14.5% | 4.0% | 15.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.42x | 0.71x | 3.14x | 2.14x | 1.65x | 3.00x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.6x | 6.5x | 6.3x | 10.4x | 16.8x | 8.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.4x | 14.7x | 10.2x | 14.8x | 41.6x | 17.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 10.2x | 14.7x | 41.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 9.5x | 16.8x | 29.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 16.6x | 17.5x | 18.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 3,141 | 3,141 | 3,141 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 52,256 | 55,006 | 57,756 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (33,961) | (33,961) | (33,961) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 18,294 | 21,045 | 23,795 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6,079.3 | 6,079.3 | 6,079.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3.01 | 3.46 | 3.91 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.01 | 3.46 | 3.91 | 4.06 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -25.9% | -14.7% | -3.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | GPK | BLRD.Y | SUZB3 | P1KG34 | I1PC34 | KLBN3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,321 | 27,481 | 148,712 | 18,306 | 33,115 | 58,643 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 129 | 2,142 | 21,990 | 843 | 1,156 | 6,470 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 1,591 | 71 | 0 | 135 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,711) | (7,506) | (108,408) | (2,803) | (10,328) | (37,885) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1) | 0 | (131) | 0 | 0 | (2,682) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 6,738 | 22,117 | 63,754 | 16,418 | 23,943 | 24,682 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 301.8 | 110.1 | 1,238.7 | 175.4 | 527.9 | 6,079.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 22.33 | 200.85 | 51.47 | 93.62 | 45.35 | 4.06 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 9.70 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 22.33 | 20.70 | 51.47 | 528.41 | 256.00 | 4.06 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 9.70 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1.00 | |