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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.8x - 0.8x | 0.8x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.6x - 0.7x | 0.7x |
| Fair Value | R$13.61 - R$15.55 | R$14.58 |
| Upside | 1.6% - 16.0% | 8.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Usinas Siderúrgicas de Minas Gerais S.A. | USIM5 | BOVESPA:USIM5 |
| Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio | CBAV3 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 |
| Paranapanema S.A. | PMAM3 | BOVESPA:PMAM3 |
| Panatlântica S.A. | PATI4 | BOVESPA:PATI4 |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional | CSNA3 | BOVESPA:CSNA3 |
| Electro Aço Altona S.A. | EALT3 | BOVESPA:EALT3 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| USIM5 | CBAV3 | PMAM3 | PATI4 | CSNA3 | EALT3 | |||
| BOVESPA:USIM5 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 | BOVESPA:PMAM3 | BOVESPA:PATI4 | BOVESPA:CSNA3 | BOVESPA:EALT3 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 11.6% | 9.2% | -38.5% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 13.5% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -8.5% | -1.0% | -54.0% | -7.5% | -3.0% | 13.4% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.4% | 11.2% | -52.7% | 12.3% | -3.9% | 13.9% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.7% | 4.5% | -40.9% | 9.1% | 18.6% | 11.7% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.4% | -13.5% | -73.3% | 3.0% | 10.7% | 10.6% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.9% | 5.1% | -74.0% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 18.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.9% | 5.1% | -74.0% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 18.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.38x | 0.73x | 11.62x | 0.33x | 0.96x | 0.72x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 40.7x | 14.2x | -15.7x | 5.5x | 10.1x | 4.0x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.25x | 0.31x | 0.31x | 0.32x | 0.25x | 0.53x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.33x | 0.73x | 11.62x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.60x | 0.72x | 1.04x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.76x | 0.80x | 0.84x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 564 | 564 | 564 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 430 | 452 | 475 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (108) | (108) | (108) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 322 | 345 | 367 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 14.31 | 15.31 | 16.32 | |||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 14.31 | 15.31 | 16.32 | 13.40 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 6.8% | 14.3% | 21.8% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | USIM5 | CBAV3 | PMAM3 | PATI4 | CSNA3 | EALT3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,725 | 5,973 | 5,319 | 702 | 41,967 | 409 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,954 | 1,389 | 42 | 460 | 24,174 | 13 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,442 | 238 | 26 | 7 | 5,888 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,758) | (4,813) | (5,245) | (483) | (57,755) | (121) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,802) | (227) | 0 | 0 | (3,188) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 6,561 | 2,559 | 143 | 686 | 11,086 | 302 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,230.9 | 651.1 | 75.4 | 19.6 | 1,326.1 | 22.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.33 | 3.93 | 1.89 | 35.00 | 8.36 | 13.40 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.33 | 3.93 | 1.89 | 35.00 | 8.36 | 13.40 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |