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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4.5x - 5.0x | 4.7x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.6x - 4.0x | 3.8x |
Fair Value | Mex$ 1,131 - Mex$ 1,368 | Mex$ 1,249 |
Upside | -20.0% - -3.3% | -11.6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
JetBlue Airways Corporation | JBLU | NasdaqGS:JBLU |
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | ULCC | NasdaqGS:ULCC |
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. | SNCY | NasdaqGS:SNCY |
Southwest Airlines Co. | LUV | NYSE:LUV |
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. | VLRS | NYSE:VLRS |
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | UAL * | BMV:UAL* |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
JBLU | ULCC | SNCY | LUV | VLRS | UAL * | ||
NasdaqGS:JBLU | NasdaqGS:ULCC | NasdaqGS:SNCY | NYSE:LUV | NYSE:VLRS | BMV:UAL* | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -17.6% | NM- | 11.0% | -16.0% | 32.0% | 3.8% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 28.0% | NM- | 29.9% | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | -6.8% | -108.2% | -6.6% | -22.5% | 197.4% | 3.8% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | -8.3% | -16.3% | 13.8% | -2.9% | 9.5% | -3.3% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 5.5% | -2.7% | 20.7% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 14.5% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 5.3% | -5.4% | 18.8% | 6.1% | 32.0% | 14.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 5.3% | -5.4% | 18.8% | 6.1% | 32.0% | 14.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.72x | 1.25x | 1.00x | 0.69x | 1.14x | 0.71x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.7x | -23.1x | 5.3x | 11.3x | 3.6x | 5.0x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -72.3x | -17.1x | 10.2x | 66.2x | 8.7x | 7.6x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -23.1x | 5.3x | 13.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -9.7x | 3.9x | 11.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.5x | 4.7x | 5.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 8,090 | 8,090 | 8,090 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 36,370 | 38,284 | 40,199 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (17,891) | (17,891) | (17,891) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 18,479 | 20,393 | 22,308 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 327.3 | 327.3 | 327.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 56.45 | 62.30 | 68.15 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/MXN | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,156.25 | 1,276.02 | 1,395.80 | 1,414.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -18.2% | -9.8% | -1.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | JBLU | ULCC | SNCY | LUV | VLRS | UAL * | |
Enterprise Value | 6,723 | 4,714 | 1,079 | 18,868 | 3,516 | 40,490 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,610 | 740 | 187 | 8,725 | 954 | 14,475 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 510 | 0 | 0 | 367 | 0 | 1,267 | |
(-) Debt | (9,142) | (4,468) | (619) | (8,058) | (3,871) | (33,633) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,701 | 986 | 647 | 19,902 | 599 | 22,599 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 353.0 | 227.2 | 52.5 | 592.7 | 114.7 | 327.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 4.82 | 4.34 | 12.32 | 33.58 | 5.22 | 69.04 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.05 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4.82 | 4.34 | 12.32 | 33.58 | 5.22 | 1,414.00 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | MXN | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.05 |