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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.2x - 5.8x | 5.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.9x - 4.3x | 4.1x |
| Fair Value | €27.13 - €28.75 | €27.94 |
| Upside | -4.0% - 1.8% | -1.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| ID Logistics Group SA | IDL | ENXTPA:IDL |
| Deutsche Post AG | DHL | DB:DHL |
| bpost NV/SA | BPOST | ENXTBR:BPOST |
| Foodlink A.E. | FOODL | ATSE:FOODL |
| Logwin AG | TGHN | DB:TGHN |
| Logista Integral, S.A. | LOG | BME:LOG |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| IDL | DHL | BPOST | FOODL | TGHN | LOG | ||
| ENXTPA:IDL | DB:DHL | ENXTBR:BPOST | ATSE:FOODL | DB:TGHN | BME:LOG | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.4% | 11.8% | -0.9% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 8.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -1.7% | -6.8% | -8.6% | 35.4% | -6.8% | 9.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -42.7% | -3.2% | 21.9% | 12.0% | -11.4% | 8.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.6% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 2.1% | 5.8% | 3.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.6% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 7.9% | 3.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 3.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 3.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.07x | 0.69x | 0.48x | 0.51x | 0.26x | 0.17x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 33.5x | 7.8x | 6.3x | 13.7x | 4.3x | 5.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 35.8x | 11.1x | 11.5x | 21.9x | 4.5x | 6.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.3x | 7.8x | 33.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -0.9x | 0.5x | 3.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 5.5x | 5.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 422 | 422 | 422 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,199 | 2,315 | 2,430 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,539 | 1,539 | 1,539 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,738 | 3,854 | 3,969 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 132.0 | 132.0 | 132.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 28.31 | 29.19 | 30.07 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 28.31 | 29.19 | 30.07 | 28.26 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 0.2% | 3.3% | 6.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | IDL | DHL | BPOST | FOODL | TGHN | LOG | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,199 | 59,498 | 2,080 | 45 | 355 | 2,192 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 0 | 4,235 | 747 | 2 | 373 | 1,611 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 862 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | 0 | (24,209) | (2,548) | (33) | (60) | (72) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (417) | (1) | 0 | (1) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,199 | 39,969 | 279 | 15 | 668 | 3,731 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6.5 | 1,151.5 | 200.0 | 33.0 | 2.9 | 132.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 336.00 | 34.71 | 1.40 | 0.45 | 232.00 | 28.26 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 336.00 | 34.71 | 1.40 | 0.45 | 232.00 | 28.26 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |