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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 38.3x - 42.3x | 40.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11.7x - 13.0x | 12.4x |
| Fair Value | €1.19 - €1.48 | €1.33 |
| Upside | -45.2% - -31.9% | -38.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Directa Plus Plc | 88K | DB:88K |
| Magis S.p.A. | MGS | BIT:MGS |
| Green Oleo S.p.A. | GRN | BIT:GRN |
| Fermentalg SA | ALGAE | ENXTPA:ALGAE |
| Cinkarna Celje, d. d. | CICG | LJSE:CICG |
| Seri Industrial S.p.A. | SERI | BIT:SERI |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 88K | MGS | GRN | ALGAE | CICG | SERI | ||
| DB:88K | BIT:MGS | BIT:GRN | ENXTPA:ALGAE | LJSE:CICG | BIT:SERI | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | 1.5% | -10.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 41.9% | NM- | NM- | -8.5% | 10.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.5% | 1.4% | NM | 16.2% | 56.5% | -75.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -51.6% | 16.4% | 5.1% | -139.6% | 21.0% | 8.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -37.8% | 18.8% | 9.7% | -244.5% | 14.0% | 9.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -31.2% | 18.6% | 2.1% | -72.3% | 19.3% | 4.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -41.3% | 18.6% | 3.6% | -72.3% | 19.3% | 2.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.19x | 0.72x | 0.53x | 3.70x | 0.90x | 1.11x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -2.9x | 3.9x | 15.0x | -5.1x | 4.7x | 56.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -2.4x | 4.9x | -80.2x | -3.9x | 7.0x | -35.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -5.1x | 3.9x | 15.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 26.5x | 29.4x | 32.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 38.3x | 40.3x | 42.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 137 | 144 | 151 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (84) | (84) | (84) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 52 | 59 | 66 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 54.0 | 54.0 | 54.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.96 | 1.10 | 1.23 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.96 | 1.10 | 1.23 | 2.17 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -55.5% | -49.3% | -43.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 88K | MGS | GRN | ALGAE | CICG | SERI | |
| Enterprise Value | 6 | 59 | 36 | 43 | 183 | 201 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1 | 15 | 3 | 21 | 65 | 37 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| (-) Debt | (3) | (8) | (15) | (13) | 0 | (122) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4 | 67 | 24 | 51 | 249 | 117 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 131.1 | 5.0 | 32.3 | 88.0 | 7.8 | 54.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.03 | 13.20 | 0.74 | 0.57 | 32.00 | 2.17 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.03 | 13.20 | 0.74 | 0.57 | 32.00 | 2.17 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |