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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.5x - 8.3x | 7.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.8x - 6.4x | 6.1x |
| Fair Value | kr122.72 - kr137.52 | kr130.12 |
| Upside | 23.7% - 38.6% | 31.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Amcor plc | 485 | DB:485 |
| Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 4W8 | DB:4W8 |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) | SCA A | OM:SCAA |
| Klabin S.A. | KLBN3 | BOVESPA:KLBN3 |
| Packaging Corporation of America | PKA | DB:PKA |
| Billerud AB (publ) | BILLS | BATS-CHIXE:BILLS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 485 | 4W8 | SCA A | KLBN3 | PKA | BILLS | ||
| DB:485 | DB:4W8 | OM:SCAA | BOVESPA:KLBN3 | DB:PKA | BATS-CHIXE:BILLS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.7% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 11.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -2.4% | 17.3% | -9.6% | 2.4% | -0.7% | 6.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.7% | -10.0% | 19.9% | 22.6% | 3.4% | 37.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 14.3% | 16.5% | 24.5% | 37.4% | 20.8% | 12.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.3% | 19.8% | 21.5% | 33.3% | 20.8% | 8.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.6% | 19.1% | 23.3% | 37.5% | 20.0% | 10.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.1% | 19.1% | 23.3% | 37.5% | 20.0% | 10.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.51x | 1.43x | 4.53x | 2.94x | 2.22x | 0.65x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.7x | 7.5x | 19.4x | 7.8x | 11.1x | 6.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.1x | 11.0x | 30.6x | 17.0x | 16.1x | 14.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 10.7x | 19.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 7.1x | 14.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 7.9x | 8.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 4,602 | 4,602 | 4,602 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 34,533 | 36,351 | 38,169 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,453) | (4,453) | (4,453) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 30,080 | 31,898 | 33,716 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 248.7 | 248.7 | 248.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 120.95 | 128.26 | 135.56 | ||||
| FX Rate: SEK/SEK | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 120.95 | 128.26 | 135.56 | 99.20 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 21.9% | 29.3% | 36.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 485 | 4W8 | SCA A | KLBN3 | PKA | BILLS | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,414 | 12,588 | 102,585 | 58,085 | 18,489 | 29,125 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 445 | 157 | 1,328 | 7,530 | 787 | 2,561 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 1,272 | 122 | 65 | 952 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,485) | (5,456) | (14,583) | (41,562) | (2,772) | (7,966) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (7) | (1) | 0 | (1,985) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 13,367 | 7,288 | 90,602 | 22,190 | 16,569 | 24,672 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,444.3 | 300.2 | 702.3 | 6,079.3 | 89.3 | 248.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 9.25 | 24.28 | 129.00 | 3.65 | 185.56 | 99.20 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.15 | 21.37 | 129.00 | 3.65 | 163.35 | 99.20 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | SEK | BRL | EUR | SEK | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.00 | |