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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 15.4x - 17.0x | 16.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.2x - 7.9x | 7.6x |
| Fair Value | ARS 40,433 - ARS 47,214 | ARS 43,823 |
| Upside | -3.3% - 12.9% | 4.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | VIST | BASE:VIST |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation | SNPM.F | OTCPK:SNPM.F |
| Equinor ASA | EQNR | BASE:EQNR |
| TotalEnergies SE | TTE | BASE:TTE |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation | XOM | BASE:XOM |
| YPF Sociedad Anónima | YPFD | BASE:YPFD |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| VIST | SNPM.F | EQNR | TTE | XOM | YPFD | ||
| BASE:VIST | OTCPK:SNPM.F | BASE:EQNR | BASE:TTE | BASE:XOM | BASE:YPFD | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 102.5% | -3.6% | 22.1% | 9.1% | 21.7% | 135.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 47.3% | -14.2% | -5.3% | 2.1% | 18.6% | 156.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.1% | -36.5% | -7.8% | -27.1% | -18.2% | 34.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 29.0% | 2.6% | 31.3% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 5.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 46.4% | 2.6% | 33.7% | 14.8% | 14.6% | 2.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 37.7% | 2.2% | 28.4% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 8.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 34.1% | 1.7% | 27.4% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 7.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.32x | 0.32x | 0.60x | 0.71x | 1.41x | 1.27x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.3x | 6.5x | 1.7x | 3.7x | 7.5x | 5.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.7x | 18.5x | 2.2x | 5.9x | 12.1x | 16.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 2.2x | 9.7x | 18.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -12.8x | 13.7x | 73.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 15.4x | 16.2x | 17.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,537,266 | 1,537,266 | 1,537,266 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 23,626,786 | 24,870,301 | 26,113,816 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (9,434,276) | (9,434,276) | (9,434,276) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 14,192,510 | 15,436,025 | 16,679,540 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 393.3 | 393.3 | 393.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 36,084.54 | 39,246.18 | 42,407.83 | ||||
| FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 36,084.54 | 39,246.18 | 42,407.83 | 41,825.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -13.7% | -6.2% | 1.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | VIST | SNPM.F | EQNR | TTE | XOM | YPFD | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,829 | 895,642 | 52,379 | 108,141 | 380,774 | 25,884,584 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 154 | 162,334 | 23,799 | 25,607 | 14,352 | 1,213,547 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 49 | 258,251 | 8,793 | 41,524 | 39,019 | 2,296,229 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,674) | (529,870) | (34,345) | (63,082) | (38,989) | (12,667,273) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (156,948) | (51) | (2,360) | (7,369) | (276,779) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,358 | 629,409 | 50,575 | 109,830 | 387,787 | 16,450,308 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 254.7 | 168,602.4 | 12,334.5 | 5,333.2 | 34,766.2 | 393.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 13.18 | 3.73 | 4.10 | 20.59 | 11.15 | 41,825.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.00 | 7.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 17,875.00 | 0.52 | 5,560.00 | 27,925.00 | 15,125.00 | 41,825.00 | |
| Trading Currency | ARS | USD | ARS | ARS | ARS | ARS | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.00 | 7.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |