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Tripcom Group Ltd DRC

BASE:TCOM

新加坡 / 非必需消費品 / 酒店、餐廳和休閒

綜觀

10 年 DCF 收入退出價

股價

32,500.00 ARS

公允價值

57,280.61 ARS

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	10.5% - 9.5%	10.0%
Terminal Revenue Multiple	3.2x - 3.5x	3.3x
Fair Value	ARS 54,929 - ARS 59,783	ARS 57,281
Upside	78.5% - 94.3%	86.1%

7.2%

Revenue 10y CAGR

33.5%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

7.6%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Revenue Exit

股價

32,500.00 ARS

公允價值

57,280.61 ARS

看漲

86.1%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	53,294	61,245	69,577	78,930	87,300	95,444	98,785	100,760	102,775	104,831	106,928
% Growth	19.7%	14.9%	13.6%	13.4%	10.6%	9.3%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	15,025	18,510	21,809	25,601	28,985	33,067	34,224	34,909	35,607	36,319	37,046
% of Revenue	28.2%	30.2%	31.3%	32.4%	33.2%	34.6%	34.6%	34.6%	34.6%	34.6%	34.6%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		18,510	21,809	25,601	28,985	33,067	34,224	34,909	35,607	36,319	37,046
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(3,174)	(3,374)	(4,125)	(4,545)	(5,130)	(5,310)	(5,416)	(5,524)	(5,635)	(5,747)

EBIT		15,337	18,434	21,476	24,440	27,937	28,915	29,493	30,083	30,685	31,298
Pro forma Taxes		(3,067)	(3,687)	(4,295)	(4,888)	(5,587)	(5,783)	(5,899)	(6,017)	(6,137)	(6,260)
NOPAT	11,342	12,269	14,747	17,181	19,552	22,350	23,132	23,594	24,066	24,548	25,039

Capital Expenditures	(591)	(778)	(856)	(787)	(745)	(902)	(811)	(819)	(836)	(822)	(826)
NWC Investment	3,135	2,838	2,974	3,339	2,988	2,907	1,192	705	719	734	748
(+) D&A	848	3,174	3,374	4,125	4,545	5,130	5,310	5,416	5,524	5,635	5,747

Free Cash Flow	14,734	17,503	20,240	23,857	26,340	29,485	28,823	28,896	29,474	30,094	30,709
% Growth			16%	18%	10%	12%	-2%	0%	2%	2%	2%

載入錯誤

Tripcom Group Ltd DRC

BASE:TCOM

新加坡 / 非必需消費品 / 酒店、餐廳和休閒

10 年 DCF 收入退出價