Molinos Rio de la Plata SA

BASE:MOLI5

阿根廷 / 必需消費品 / 食物產品

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股息

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價

股價

5,000.00 ARS

公允價值

3,064.41 ARS

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	9.8% - 8.8%	9.3%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	11.6x - 13.6x	12.6x
Fair Value	ARS 2,799 - ARS 3,349	ARS 3,064
Upside	-44.0% - -33.0%	-38.7%

1.6%

Revenue 10y CAGR

6.2%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

股價

5,000.00 ARS

公允價值

3,064.41 ARS

看漲

-38.7%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(ARS in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	882,117	557,607	671,452	765,053	854,729	918,834	950,993	970,013	989,413	1,009,201	1,029,385
% Growth	-6.4%	-36.8%	20.4%	13.9%	11.7%	7.5%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	-1,296	32,662	40,454	45,853	46,718	59,410	61,490	62,719	63,974	65,253	66,558
% of Revenue	-0.1%	5.9%	6.0%	6.0%	5.5%	6.5%	6.5%	6.5%	6.5%	6.5%	6.5%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(ARS in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		32,662	40,454	45,853	46,718	59,410	61,490	62,719	63,974	65,253	66,558
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(13,460)	(16,209)	(18,468)	(20,633)	(22,180)	(22,957)	(23,416)	(23,884)	(24,362)	(24,849)

EBIT		19,202	24,245	27,385	26,085	37,230	38,533	39,304	40,090	40,892	41,709
Pro forma Taxes		(4,608)	(5,819)	(6,572)	(6,260)	(8,935)	(9,248)	(9,433)	(9,622)	(9,814)	(10,010)
NOPAT	(14,904)	14,593	18,427	20,813	19,825	28,295	29,285	29,871	30,468	31,078	31,699

Capital Expenditures	(26,427)	(4,000)	(5,000)	(5,700)	(6,500)	(6,988)	(6,396)	(6,524)	(6,636)	(6,518)	(6,559)
NWC Investment	8,992	48,188	(16,905)	(13,899)	(13,316)	(9,519)	(4,775)	(2,824)	(2,881)	(2,938)	(2,997)
(+) D&A	18,314	13,460	16,209	18,468	20,633	22,180	22,957	23,416	23,884	24,362	24,849

Free Cash Flow	(14,025)	72,242	12,730	19,681	20,641	33,968	41,070	43,938	44,836	45,982	46,991
% Growth		NM	-82%	55%	5%	65%	21%	7%	2%	3%	2%

載入錯誤

Molinos Rio de la Plata SA

BASE:MOLI5

阿根廷 / 必需消費品 / 食物產品

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價