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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.1x - 0.1x | 0.1x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.1x - 0.1x | 0.1x |
| Fair Value | €1.07 - €1.50 | €1.29 |
| Upside | -30.2% - -2.5% | -16.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. | ELPE | ATSE:ELPE |
| Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. | MOH | ATSE:MOH |
| Neste Oyj | NESTE | HLSE:NESTE |
| Elinoil Hellenic Petroleum Company S.A. | ELIN | ATSE:ELIN |
| Les Docks des Pétroles d'Ambès -SA | DPAM | ENXTPA:DPAM |
| Revoil S.A. | REVOIL | ATSE:REVOIL |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| ELPE | MOH | NESTE | ELIN | DPAM | REVOIL | |||
| ATSE:ELPE | ATSE:MOH | HLSE:NESTE | ATSE:ELIN | ENXTPA:DPAM | ATSE:REVOIL | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 4.4% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 11.5% | 5.9% | 10.9% | 19.4% | 5.4% | 8.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -0.3% | -8.5% | -10.0% | -5.0% | 12.0% | 2.9% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.7% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 0.6% | 41.6% | 0.8% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 0.6% | 46.9% | 0.7% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.3% | 5.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 40.4% | 0.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.3% | 5.8% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 37.7% | 0.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.32x | 0.29x | 0.47x | 0.07x | 2.43x | 0.10x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.0x | 5.0x | 507.7x | 7.6x | 6.4x | 12.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.18x | 0.18x | 0.26x | 0.02x | 3.06x | 0.04x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.07x | 0.32x | 2.43x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.06x | 0.10x | 0.12x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.10x | 0.11x | 0.11x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 869 | 869 | 869 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 88 | 93 | 97 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (65) | (65) | (65) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 23 | 27 | 32 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.04 | 1.25 | 1.46 | |||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.04 | 1.25 | 1.46 | 1.54 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -32.7% | -19.0% | -5.2% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ELPE | MOH | NESTE | ELIN | DPAM | REVOIL | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,088 | 3,480 | 9,530 | 181 | 48 | 99 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 618 | 1,128 | 955 | 10 | 13 | 5 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 203 | 461 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,638) | (2,857) | (5,148) | (143) | 0 | (71) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (55) | (35) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,216 | 2,177 | 5,430 | 47 | 61 | 34 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 305.6 | 107.9 | 768.2 | 23.7 | 0.1 | 21.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.25 | 20.18 | 7.07 | 1.99 | 625.00 | 1.54 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.25 | 20.18 | 7.07 | 1.99 | 625.00 | 1.54 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |