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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.3x - 6.9x | 6.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.2x - 8.0x | 7.6x |
| Fair Value | €1.42 - €1.81 | €1.62 |
| Upside | -10.5% - 13.9% | 1.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. | ELPE | ATSE:ELPE |
| Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. | MOH | ATSE:MOH |
| Neste Oyj | NESTE | HLSE:NESTE |
| Elinoil Hellenic Petroleum Company S.A. | ELIN | ATSE:ELIN |
| Les Docks des Pétroles d'Ambès -SA | DPAM | ENXTPA:DPAM |
| Revoil S.A. | REVOIL | ATSE:REVOIL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ELPE | MOH | NESTE | ELIN | DPAM | REVOIL | ||
| ATSE:ELPE | ATSE:MOH | HLSE:NESTE | ATSE:ELIN | ENXTPA:DPAM | ATSE:REVOIL | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.0% | 21.8% | -23.2% | 13.8% | 2.1% | 5.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 3.5% | 168.7% | -34.1% | 29.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -31.1% | -30.9% | -69.4% | 10.6% | -13.8% | 32.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.0% | 6.6% | 12.9% | 0.7% | 44.9% | 1.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 0.7% | 49.6% | 1.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 42.8% | 1.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.4% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 39.8% | 1.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.32x | 0.28x | 0.49x | 0.07x | 2.62x | 0.10x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 3.7x | 14.5x | 6.3x | 6.6x | 6.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.9x | 4.9x | 533.2x | 7.6x | 6.9x | 12.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.7x | 6.3x | 14.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.8x | 7.6x | 10.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 6.6x | 6.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 12 | 12 | 12 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 77 | 81 | 85 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (49) | (49) | (49) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 28 | 32 | 36 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.28 | 1.46 | 1.65 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.28 | 1.46 | 1.65 | 1.59 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -19.7% | -8.0% | 3.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ELPE | MOH | NESTE | ELIN | DPAM | REVOIL | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,115 | 3,461 | 10,042 | 183 | 53 | 83 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 618 | 1,128 | 955 | 10 | 13 | 5 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 203 | 461 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,638) | (2,857) | (5,148) | (143) | 0 | (55) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (55) | (35) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,243 | 2,157 | 5,942 | 49 | 66 | 35 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 305.6 | 107.9 | 768.2 | 23.7 | 0.1 | 21.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.34 | 20.00 | 7.73 | 2.08 | 670.00 | 1.59 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.34 | 20.00 | 7.73 | 2.08 | 670.00 | 1.59 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |