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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -12.7x - -14.0x | -13.4x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9.7x - 10.7x | 10.2x |
Fair Value | A$13.25 - A$17.52 | A$15.38 |
Upside | -36.5% - -16.0% | -26.3% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
IGO Limited | IGO | ASX:IGO |
Macmahon Holdings Limited | MAH | ASX:MAH |
Liontown Resources Limited | LTR | ASX:LTR |
Champion Iron Limited | CIA | ASX:CIA |
Sayona Mining Limited | SYA | ASX:SYA |
Mineral Resources Limited | MIN | ASX:MIN |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
IGO | MAH | LTR | CIA | SYA | MIN | ||
ASX:IGO | ASX:MAH | ASX:LTR | ASX:CIA | ASX:SYA | ASX:MIN | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | 11.9% | NM- | 10.2% | NM- | 0.1% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | 6.3% | NM- | -18.4% | NM- | -41.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 40.0% | -16.7% | 0.3% | -45.0% | -297.0% | -229.0% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | -19.0% | 5.5% | -1310398.0% | 41.4% | -1178.6% | 20.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | -74.1% | 5.6% | NA | 26.6% | NA | 16.3% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | -70.4% | 4.9% | NA | 28.1% | -57.1% | 6.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -92.1% | 4.5% | -53.1% | 19.1% | -70.1% | -12.1% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.64x | 0.37x | 18.94x | 1.86x | 1.46x | 1.85x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | -5.2x | 3.8x | -36.8x | 7.0x | -3.0x | 43.8x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -1.8x | 8.1x | -35.6x | 9.7x | -2.1x | -15.3x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -35.6x | -1.8x | 9.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 7.6x | 12.0x | 34.1x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -12.7x | -13.4x | -14.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | (611) | (611) | (611) | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,753 | 8,161 | 8,569 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (5,353) | (5,353) | (5,353) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 2,400 | 2,808 | 3,216 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 195.4 | 195.4 | 195.4 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 12.28 | 14.37 | 16.46 | ||||
FX Rate: AUD/AUD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.28 | 14.37 | 16.46 | 20.87 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -41.2% | -31.2% | -21.1% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | IGO | MAH | LTR | CIA | SYA | MIN | |
Enterprise Value | 1,242 | 827 | 1,998 | 2,830 | 298 | 9,431 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 291 | 222 | 193 | 93 | 110 | 720 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1,646 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 204 | |
(-) Debt | (43) | (459) | (844) | (808) | (80) | (5,804) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (121) | (473) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 3,136 | 591 | 1,347 | 2,130 | 208 | 4,078 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 755.8 | 2,111.5 | 2,427.5 | 518.3 | 11,543.3 | 195.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 4.15 | 0.28 | 0.56 | 4.11 | 0.02 | 20.87 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4.15 | 0.28 | 0.56 | 4.62 | 0.02 | 20.87 | |
Trading Currency | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.00 |