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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.9x - 3.2x | 3.1x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2.1x - 2.3x | 2.2x |
| Fair Value | £0.098 - £0.13 | £0.11 |
| Upside | 35.5% - 77.9% | 56.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Tullow Oil plc | TLW | LSE:TLW |
| Ascent Resources Plc | AST | AIM:AST |
| Sound Energy plc | SOU | AIM:SOU |
| Block Energy Plc | BLOE | AIM:BLOE |
| Enwell Energy plc | ENW | AIM:ENW |
| Savannah Energy PLC | SAVE | AIM:SAVE |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| TLW | AST | SOU | BLOE | ENW | SAVE | |||
| LSE:TLW | AIM:AST | AIM:SOU | AIM:BLOE | AIM:ENW | AIM:SAVE | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.8% | -6.2% | NM- | 115.7% | 0.9% | NM- | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 6.1% | NM- | NM- | 88.2% | 12.2% | 9.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.1% | -97.3% | NM | 7.0% | -33.1% | -14.0% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 31.6% | -3350.8% | NA | -260.3% | 51.3% | 40.3% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 44.0% | -7220.0% | NA | -22.6% | 72.0% | 29.4% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 35.8% | -57.5% | NA | -25.8% | 57.2% | 64.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 35.8% | -3403.8% | NA | -21.7% | 58.8% | 110.7% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.65x | 49.16x | NA | 1.07x | -0.50x | 2.78x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.6x | -1.4x | -0.3x | -4.9x | -0.9x | 2.5x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.17x | 52.70x | NA | 0.90x | 1.52x | 0.74x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | -0.50x | 1.36x | 49.16x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 2.98x | 4.58x | 33.89x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.90x | 3.05x | 3.20x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 215 | 215 | 215 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 624 | 657 | 690 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (411) | (411) | (411) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 213 | 246 | 279 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,610.6 | 1,610.6 | 1,610.6 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.17 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/GBP | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.07 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 38.6% | 59.9% | 81.3% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TLW | AST | SOU | BLOE | ENW | SAVE | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,422 | 3 | 44 | 9 | (13) | 565 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 555 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 93 | 43 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,709) | (1) | (38) | (2) | (1) | (580) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (13) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 268 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 79 | 154 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,459.2 | 308.7 | 2,080.6 | 686.6 | 320.6 | 1,610.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.25 | 0.10 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 0.07 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | |